In the content of the previous issue, China exportsemi net focused on sorting out for you the overall review of the semiconductor industry in 2023. The "Prospects for Semiconductors and Components in 2024" report 1. The content sharing in this issue focuses on the outlook for the semiconductor industry in 2024. , briefly summarized from the two major sections of "semiconductor design" and "semiconductor manufacturing". Let’s start today’s sharing:
Semiconductor Industry Outlook 2024 Overview:
1. Semiconductor design sector
Cyclic fluctuation angle: After entering 23Q3, data shows that due to the impact of smartphone terminal replenishment and the release period of new Android phones, the demand for radio frequency, CIS, SoC storage and simulation and other related sectors has shown a bottom pulse recovery, and a certain degree of mobile phone sales can still be seen in 23Q4 Chips continue to be sold. However, looking forward to the overall shipment volume in 2024, with the implementation of AI applications and the traditional replacement cycle, Canalys predicts that global smartphone/PC shipments in 2024 are expected to increase by 3.5%/8% year-on-year. In comparison, smartphone shipments Year-on-year growth in cargo volume was moderate. Analysts believe that since domestic chip design companies have relatively small PC revenue exposure, in 2024 they should focus on the performance elasticity brought about by the price increase of mobile phone chip products (CIS, radio frequency discrete devices, storage), as well as breakthroughs in the share of mid-to-high-end products (such as Flagship model CIS, RF front-end module); looking at other AIoT terminals (TWS headsets, smart speakers, smart set-top boxes, smart TVs, etc.), we need to pay attention to the impact of innovation on terminal shipments and the progress of high-end SoC products. In terms of analog chips, taking into account the recovery progress of various downstream application scenarios, it is expected that the demand recovery in 2024 will still show structural differentiation. Consumer products are expected to maintain the recovery trend in the first half of the year. Industry, communications and other fields continue to destock, and overall demand is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. In terms of power devices, the continued release of the supply side and the accelerated penetration of SiC device modules pose downward risks and upward opportunities for the industry respectively.
Figure 1: Domestic monthly mobile phone shipment trends
Technology change perspective: Against the background of the rapid development of generative AI applications, the importance of computing power chips as underlying production tool support is increasing, and the market size is expected to grow. Currently, trade frictions have restricted domestic imports of high-end computing chips, which has become a constraint on the development of my country's large-scale model technology. Analysts believe that the computing power chip track has a high ceiling and the increasing importance of localization. It is expected to continue to be a sector that investors focus on in 2024. However, at the same time, the uncertainty of the localization supply chain of computing power chips will also bring upward opportunities. /Downside risk. In addition, although the overall terminal shipment growth is weak, the technological upgrade and localization rate increase of automobile intelligent chips are also worthy of attention. The time for domestic manufacturers to "get on board" in 2024 may be approaching.
- Semiconductor manufacturing sector
Cyclic fluctuation angle: We predict that the global wafer foundry market will experience a "double u" type fluctuation, and is expected to establish an upward trend in 2Q24. It is expected that the global wafer foundry market will grow by 5-10% in 2024; we expect Packaging and testing OEM (excluding Chiplet advanced packaging) entered normal seasonal fluctuations in 1Q24, and the industry growth rate for the whole year was above high single digits. In addition to the mild recovery in demand and cyclical capital expenditure fluctuations, driven by advanced processes, HBM, advanced packaging (CoWoS) and other technologies, SEMI predicts that global semiconductor equipment sales will reach US$105.31 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%. SEMI predicts that global wafer manufacturing equipment sales are expected to reach US$93.16 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3%, of which foundry and logic equipment is US$55.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, NAND equipment is US$10.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%, and DRAM Equipment is close to US$13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%; the testing equipment, assembly and packaging equipment fields will increase by 13.9% and 24.3% respectively, reaching US$7.2 billion and US$4.95 billion.
Technology change perspective: The advanced packaging industry with Chiplet (CoWoS-like) technology as the core has attracted the attention of packaging and testing foundry companies as the demand for AI chips continues to grow. We expect that global leaders will continue to invest funds and manpower in R&D and production expansion. From the perspective of industry chain division of labor, we believe that the major overseas HBM and CoWoS manufacturers will still be dominated by companies with strong wafer manufacturing capabilities such as Hynix, Samsung, TSMC, Intel, etc., while domestic development will be relatively backward in the future. There may be coexistence of wafer factories, IDMs, packaging and testing factories, and module factories. Domestic front-end equipment has used its previous technology accumulation to quickly enter the fields of exposure, electroplating, CMP, etching, deposition, cleaning, quality inspection, etc. However, the technical level of domestic equipment in bonding, temporary bonding, thinning, cutting and other fields Still needs to be improved. At the same time, domestic equipment and materials in traditional fields such as flip chip, molding, and ATE are also expected to gradually increase the localization rate.
From the perspective of domestic substitution: Although domestic wafer fabs will still face price pressure from mature processes in the medium term, capital expenditures may increase significantly in 2024 compared to 2023. Among them, Yangtze Memory Technologies, Changxin Memory Technologies, SMIC, and Huahong Group are expected to maintain relatively high capital expenditures. Therefore, CICC is optimistic about the order and performance growth of domestic equipment and materials, especially manufacturers with a high proportion of storage customers. It is expected that in 2024, the normal expansion and research and development of chip companies and wafer fabs will drive the revenue of the EDA design tool industry back on track. At the same time, there are currently a large number of EDA design tool companies in mainland China, and there is expected to be a peak period of industry clearance and mergers and acquisitions in the future, and the market structure is expected to improve.
In the following sharing, China exportsemi net will take out the eight market segments of the "semiconductor design sector" to share with you their development trends, including: computing chips, digital SoCs, CMOS image sensors (CIS), analog chips, RF chips, storage chips, MUC, and power devices.
1. "Semiconductors and Components 2024 Outlook", published by CICC Securities Research Report in December 2023.
Outlook for Semiconductors and Electronic Components in 2024 (1): Industry Review in 2023
Semiconductor and Electronic Components Outlook 2024 (5): Semiconductor Manufacturing Sector
Outlook for Semiconductors and Electronic Components in 2024 (7): Panel/PCB/Component Sector
