To understand how today's highly competitive business ecology came about, we need to look back in history. In the early to mid-2000s, four key industries were undergoing fundamental change, and their trajectories ultimately shaped the business landscape as we know it today. According to the McKinsey report, take the e-commerce, entertainment, semiconductor, and electric vehicle industries as examples to see how these sectors have grown from their beginnings to trillion-dollar markets.
E-commerce: The explosive growth of digital retail
In 2005, e-commerce was still a "small player" in the overall retail industry, with a market capitalization of only $87 billion and annual revenues of $15 billion, accounting for only 2.5% of total retail sales in the United States. But Amazon has shown incredible potential: its revenue soared from $16 million in 1996 to $8.5 billion in 2005. During this period, Amazon was focusing on two pillars: a third-party seller platform launched in 2000 and a logistics service system launched in 2006. At the same time, Internet penetration in the United States jumped from 9% in 1995 to 68% in 2005, paving the way for an e-commerce explosion. The industry ecosystem is also evolving rapidly: eBay acquired PayPal in 2002, and Shopify launched an Amazon-independent e-commerce solution in 2006. By 2020, the once-niche market had swelled to a market capitalization of $3.3 trillion and annual revenues of $888 billion.
Entertainment: The Beginning of the Streaming Revolution
The audiovisual entertainment industry in 2005 (valued at $256 billion) was still dominated by the traditional model: Disney and other content distributors distributed content through theaters, DVD rentals (Blockbuster, Netflix) and cable television. The turning point began in 2003 when Netflix filed a patent for a DVD subscription service, an innovative model that saw its subscribers surge from 1.4 million in 2003 to 7.3 million in 2007, while revenue grew from $272 million to $1.2 billion over the same period. Launched in 2007, streaming services completely rewrote the rules of the industry, and by 2020, the industry was worth $1.5 trillion.
Figure:18 Potential Arenas of the Future That Could Reshape the Global Economy
Semiconductors: An arms race for computing power
When the semiconductor industry was worth $642 billion in 2005, key technological breakthroughs were in the making. In that year, Intel launched its first multi-core processor, announced the construction of a large-scale production base in Vietnam in 2006, and released the epoch-making Core i7 processor in 2008. At the same time, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) established its foundry supremacy through aggressive expansion: four new wafer fabs were built between 2000 and 2005, with an initial investment of about $14 billion; By 2008, its R&D investment had exceeded 20% of the three competitors combined. These layouts have enabled the semiconductor industry to reach a market value of $3.5 trillion in 2020.
Electric Vehicles: Breaking the Ice for the Industrialization of Clean Energy
The industrialization of electric vehicles began in the 1990s with the commercialization of lithium-ion batteries in Japan. By the early 2000s, manufacturers such as Honda and Toyota began to introduce hybrid models. The real turning point came in 2004 when Tesla launched the Roadster project, a 240-mile all-electric vehicle launched in 2008 that broke the technical bottleneck. By 2020, the EV industry was worth $941 billion.
Looking back at the early 2000s, no one could have predicted exactly what these industries would do. But now it's clear how technological innovations (e.g., streaming, multi-core chips), business model breakthroughs (e-commerce platforms, subscription services), and strategic investments (semiconductor manufacturing, battery R&D) interact to create a new business arena. These cases reveal the key law of industrial evolution: seemingly scattered early innovation, through continuous accumulation and system integration, will eventually lead to qualitative changes at the industry level. Understanding this process has important implications for us to grasp the current evolution direction of emerging industries.
Related:
18 Potential Arenas of the Future That Could Reshape the Global Economy (1)
18 Potential Arenas of the Future That Could Reshape the Global Economy (2)
18 Potential Arenas of the Future That Could Reshape the Global Economy (3)
18 Potential Arenas of the Future That Could Reshape the Global Economy (4)
18 Potential Arenas of the Future That Could Reshape the Global Economy (5)
18 Potential Arenas of the Future That Could Reshape the Global Economy (6)
18 Potential Arenas of the Future That Could Reshape the Global Economy (7)
18 Potential Arenas of the Future That Could Reshape the Global Economy (8)
18 Potential Arenas of the Future That Could Reshape the Global Economy (9)
