With global trade frictions, intensified competition in the technology industry, rising domestic manufacturing costs, and the release of engineer dividends, the trends of "globalization of intelligent manufacturing" and "localization of industrial industry chains" are happening simultaneously. At the same time, it is possible to The "electronic base" that effectively supports the rise of domestic industry, new energy, automobile and other industrial chains is expected to accelerate the realization of domestic substitution.
According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, domestic mobile phone shipments in November were 23.238 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%, and demand is still under pressure; domestic mobile phone shipments from January to November were 244 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%. According to CINNO, domestic mobile phone sales dropped 21.7% year-on-year to 20.47 million units in November, with sales of Apple, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo falling 29.4%, 11.6%, 27.3%, 26.6%, and 36.2% respectively year-on-year. Although mobile phone demand is still relatively weak, global mobile phone shipments are expected to achieve restorative growth in 2023 as terminal inventory pressure eases.
Global folding machine shipments will continue to grow at a high rate in 2023, with Samsung and LG demonstrating new folding technologies at CES. At the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2023), Samsung demonstrated an OLED panel that combines folding technology and sliding technology. The panel measures 8 inches when folded, up to 10 inches when unfolded, and can be expanded to 12.4 inches when the screen slides out. inches; LG has released an 8-inch OLED panel that can be folded 360 degrees and can be folded up to 200,000 times. As a combination of smartphones, tablets and even laptops, foldable screens will further expand large-screen display application scenarios and stimulate users' demand for replacement phones. Counterpoint expects global foldable screen mobile phone shipments to grow 52% from 14.9 million units in 2022 to 22.7 million units in 2023.
Figure 1: Samsung displays foldable mobile phone at CES
Samsung's 4Q22 operating profit dropped by 60% month-on-month, and it will increase semiconductor production capacity in 2023 to await industry recovery. Samsung Electronics expects 4Q22 revenue of 70 trillion won and operating profit of 4.3 trillion won, with storage business demand and prices falling sharply. The current semiconductor boom is still on the decline. Micron plans to lower its capital expenditure in FY23 from US$12 billion in FY22 to US$7-7.5 billion and reduce wafer output. However, Samsung plans to reduce the DRAM and wafer output of its Pyeongtaek P3 plant in 2023. The foundry capacity will be increased by about 10% to await the recovery of industry demand.
The supply and demand structure of semiconductors will diverge in 2023, and demand for automotive and industrial semiconductors will continue to boom. On January 4, Nikkei announced the results of an industry survey: Although the suppression of semiconductor supply and inventory digestion are gradually making progress, semiconductors for smartphones and personal computers are expected to recover in October-December and July-September 2023 respectively. Supply and demand are balanced; semiconductor demand in data centers is expected to tend to be oversupplied from January to March as Chinese and American IT giants are affected by the economic recession; automotive and industrial semiconductors are still in short supply, especially power and power management analog semiconductors in automotive semiconductors are expected to be in 2023 Supply shortages remained during the year.
New energy vehicles are growing month-on-month, and we should pay attention to the incremental semiconductor opportunities brought by related car companies. In December, most of my country's new energy vehicles achieved month-on-month improvement in sales: BYD 235,000 units, maintaining continuous growth; new car-making forces, except Nezha, all maintained month-on-month growth: Aian 30,000 units, returning to positive month-on-month sales, Ideal 21,000 units, Wei There are 16,000 vehicles coming, 11,000 Ji Krypton vehicles, and 10,000 AITO vehicles.
