Amidst global trade tensions, intensified competition in the technology industry, rising costs in domestic manufacturing, and the release of the engineer dividend, the trends of "globalization of smart manufacturing" and "domestication of the industrial supply chain" are occurring simultaneously. Meanwhile, the "electronic foundation" capable of effectively supporting the rise of domestic industrial, new energy, and automotive supply chains is expected to accelerate the process of domestic substitution.
According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the domestic mobile phone shipments in November were 23.238 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%, indicating continued low demand. The total domestic mobile phone shipments from January to November were 244 million units, with a year-on-year decline of 23.2%. According to CINNO, the domestic mobile phone sales decreased by 21.7% year-on-year to 20.47 million units in November, among which the sales of Apple, HONOR, XIAOMI, OPPO and VIVO decreased by 29.4%, 11.6%, 27.3%, 26.6% and 36.2% year-on-year respectively. Although the demand for mobile phones is still low, with the relief of terminal inventory pressure, the global mobile phone shipments are expected to achieve recovery growth in 23 years.
In 2023, the global folding phone shipments continue to grow at a high rate, and SAMSUNG and LG will show new folding technologies at CES. At the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2023), SAMSUNG demonstrated an OLED panel that combines folding technology and slide cover technology. The panel is 8 inches in size when folded, 10 inches when unfolded, and 12.4 inches when the screen slides out; LG has released a 360-degree foldable OLED panel, which is 8 inches in size and can be folded 200,000 times. Folding screen, as a collection of smart phones, tablets and even laptops, will further expand the application scenarios of large-screen display and stimulate users' demand. Counterpoint predicts that the global shipments of folding screen mobile phones will increase by 52% from 14.9 million units in 2022 to 22.7 million units in 2023.
Figure 1: SAMSUNG shows folding mobile phones at CES
SAMSUNG 4Q22's operating profit decreased by 60% month-on-month, and its semiconductor production capacity will be increased in 2023 to wait for the industry to recover. SAMSUNG company expects 4Q22 revenue to be 70 trillion won and operating profit to be 4.3 trillion won, in which the demand and price of storage business have dropped sharply. Currently, the semiconductor market outlook is still on a downward trend. MICRON plans to reduce its FY23 capital expenditure from $12 billion in FY22 to $7-7.5 billion and decrease wafer output. However, SAMSUNG plans to increase the DRAM and wafer foundry capacity of its Pyeongtaek P3 plant by about 10% in 2023, anticipating a recovery in industry demand.
In 2023, the structure of semiconductor supply and demand is divided, and the demand for automobile and industrial semiconductors continues to boom. On January 4th, Nikkei News released the results of an industry survey: despite gradual progress in alleviating semiconductor supply constraints and inventory digestion, it is expected that the supply-demand balance for semiconductors used in smartphones and personal computers will be restored around October-December 2023 and July-September 2023, respectively. Semiconductor demand in data centers is inclined towards oversupply in the first quarter to March due to the impact of economic downturn on major IT giants in both China and the United States. The demand for semiconductors in the automotive and industrial sectors continues to outstrip supply, particularly in power and power management analog semiconductors for automotive semiconductors, which are expected to maintain a supply shortage throughout 2023.
New energy vehicles increased month-on-month, semiconductor incremental opportunities brought by related vehicle companies should be pay attention to. In December, most of new energy vehicles achieved a month-on-month new powers in the auto-making industry improvement in sales: BYD 235,000, maintaining continuous growth; Except NETA, all the maintained a month-on-month growth: 30,000 vehicles in AION, 21,000 vehicles in LI AUTO, 16,000 vehicles in NIO, 11,000 vehicles in Krypton and 10,000 vehicles in AITO.
