Recently, the world's largest international Consumer Electronics Show (CES) concluded in the United States, attracting the participation of thousands of global companies. The annual CES is considered a benchmark for the development of the technology industry. This year's exhibition has also injected new vitality and development confidence into the consumer electronics industry that has been sluggish in the past year.
At this exhibition, display panels and technology in the consumer electronics market have attracted much attention as an important upgrade direction. Global head panel companies have made a major appearance to help the development of large-screen and high-end terminal displays, and continue to iterate screen performance and The shape and other trends are obvious. In fact, the panel industry has experienced ups and downs in 2022. Since the fourth quarter, panel prices have experienced a slight increase. Many research institutions have stated that the panel market has gradually stepped out of the bottom of the cycle, and large-size and high-end development driven by new technologies and product upgrades will drive With the steady growth of demand area and the recovery of regional consumer demand, the panel industry is expected to rebound in 2023.
Panel manufacturers strive to upgrade display screen technology
At the CES 2023 exhibition, global head panel manufacturers launched large-screen, foldable and new screen technologies to accelerate display technology upgrades and market implementation. Specifically, major manufacturers continue to focus on large-size screens, improving technology while optimizing costs and efficiency.
In the TV field, take TCL Huaxing as an example. As the world's leading large-size manufacturer, TCL Huaxing has launched an 85-inch 8K 120Hz a-Si 4Mask 1G1D LCD screen, which adopts TSS high-penetration technology independently developed by TCL Huaxing, achieving a 20% penetration improvement. , thus achieving a 15% reduction in the power consumption of the entire machine; in addition, the 4 mask technology it applies also significantly reduces costs and helps accelerate the development of large-screen TVs.
In addition, this CES exhibition is also quite interesting in terms of display technology upgrades. TCL CSOT's latest launch of the world's first 14" 4K 120Hz micro-bezel thin and light OLED mid-size display with a screen-to-body ratio of up to 96%, 4K resolution and 120Hz refresh rate, as well as the world's first 65" 8K printed OLED, is The largest size, highest resolution and refresh rate OLED product developed based on printed OLED technology in the world so far.
In terms of foldable screens, foldable screen mobile phones will be the most eye-catching incremental market in 2022, and leading panel manufacturers will continue to make layouts. Samsung has launched the Flex Hybrid concept smart device with "flexible OLED display + sliding mechanism", which provides imagination space for the development of foldable screen mobile phones. TCL Huaxing combines MLP (Micro-Lens) and PLP (Pol-Less) technologies to realize the first application of micro-prisms in foldable products. This low-power technology can effectively reduce power consumption by up to 30%.
The panel industry is ushering in recovery as regional demand picks up
In addition to the efforts of panel manufacturers on the supply side, the end consumer market is also showing regional market incremental opportunities. Demand in emerging markets such as India and Brazil is expected to continue to grow, helping the panel industry to bottom out and rebound. Take the Indian market as an example. The current TV penetration rate in India is only 66%, 18% are CRT TVs, and more than 70% of TVs were purchased in 2017 or earlier. There will still be strong new demand and demand in the Indian market in the future. Driven by the demand for replacement and falling TV prices, TV sales in the Indian market are expected to see strong growth.
In the North American market, driven by deep discounts in the Q4 promotional season, the North American TV retail market has experienced several consecutive months of growth. In November, terminal demand increased by 14%. In December, driven by Christmas promotions, demand is expected to increase by 4%. As the world's largest In the TV consumer market, the recovery of the North American market will effectively boost panel demand.
Li Yaqin, general manager of Sigmaintell, said that the first quarter of 2023 will still be a stage for brands to continue to actively control inventory. If inventory control continues in the first quarter, it is expected that the overall inventory of major brands, including TVs, PCs, and mobile phones, will fall this year in the second quarter. In the second quarter, we entered a relatively healthy level.
Data from market research agency TrendForce shows that TV panel prices have rebounded slightly since the fourth quarter and are now continuing to stabilize. Panel prices in early January were the same as last month, and increased by US$3-4 compared with prices in early October. . In terms of IT panels, the decline in IT panels since the fourth quarter has converged and stopped in January. Panels for TVs, monitors and laptops have remained flat across the board, and prices have clearly bottomed out.
CITIC Securities' January research report shows that in the short term, inventory levels in 22Q4 have become healthy, and the supply and demand relationship has significantly improved. Panel prices are expected to remain stable from the end of 22 to 23Q1, and are expected to gradually pick up as demand recovers; in the medium and long term, continued optimism Under the trend of domestic substitution, the share of domestic panel leaders has increased.
Security monitoring and smart lighting may lead market development
From the perspective of product segments, according to data released by IDC, smart cameras, smart lighting, and smart door locks continue to grow. Home security monitoring and smart lighting are expected to become the subcategories that will lead the development of the smart home market in the next five years. China's smart camera market shipments are expected to be 20.47 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The capabilities of smart cameras are continuing to be upgraded, including resolution, pixels, night vision and other capabilities. On the IoT connection, security scenarios have been expanded to care, companionship, and entertainment scenarios, and they have capabilities such as fall monitoring for the elderly and entertainment companionship.
Data shows that China’s smart door lock market shipments are expected to be 6.59 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. At present, the penetration rate of this category in domestic households is low, and its market space is very broad. Coupled with the improved security performance of smart door locks, the market acceptance will generally increase, and the future growth rate is expected to reach more than 30%.
At the same time, China's smart lighting market shipments are expected to be 29.13 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%. The connection between lighting equipment and mobile phones, as well as interaction methods such as voice and sensing, are constantly improving and their convenience, coupled with the introduction of emerging concepts such as mainless lights, will promote the development of more new categories such as light strips and track lights.
