Energy storage blue ocean starts, overseas household storage explodes
It is reported that due to the instability of new energy, there is a rigid demand for new energy storage. According to application scenarios, energy storage is divided into three categories: power generation side, transmission and distribution side, and power consumption side. Among the power consumption side energy storage, the proportion of household storage Basically between 20%-30%. From the perspective of profit model, household savings are mainly for self-use, supplemented by Internet access. From the perspective of development trends, household storage has a trend of integrating light and storage. All-in-one machines mostly adopt DC coupling, which has higher overall efficiency. High integration also effectively reduces soft costs. Judging from the current demand, household savings have exploded around the world, with Europe leading the way, followed closely by the United States. In 2021, the newly installed capacity of global household savings will be approximately 6.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 116.23%.
Figure 1: Energy storage blue ocean starts, overseas household storage explodes
The economics of integrated optical and storage systems have improved, with higher economics in European and American markets.
Based on the operation and profit model of household storage, it can be concluded that Europe and the United States are more economical, and the integrated photovoltaic and storage products are the most economical. The IRR of the integrated photovoltaic and storage products in Germany is 24.5%, and that in the United States is 13.6%. If other assumptions remain unchanged, further analysis using the United States as an example yields the following:
1) The total cost decreases by 5%, the IRR increases by 1.7pct, and as the cost decrease increases, the marginal utility increases;
2) When the electricity price increases by 0.1 USD/kWh, the IRR increases by 0.9 pct;
3) Per capita electricity consumption increases by 50kWh/month, IRR increases by 0.8pct, and marginal utility will be limited by the scale of the photovoltaic and storage system;
4) The peak-trough spread increased by 5%, and the IRR increased by 0.7pct.
The two-wheel drive of economy and reliability has led to the explosion of demand for overseas household savings.
Economic aspects:
1) Energy inflation combined with geopolitical tensions drives up electricity prices
2) Time-of-use electricity prices are applied regularly, and the peak-to-valley price difference is widening.
3) Per capita electricity consumption is high and the growth trend is expected to continue. The popularity of new energy vehicles has also become a new driving force for increasing household electricity consumption.
4) The cost of optical storage electricity has entered a downward channel and is expected to be further reduced in the future.
5) Policies stimulate household savings demand and reduce investment costs
The above factors have helped improve the economics of the household savings system and boosted the demand for household savings. In terms of reliability, power outages occur frequently around the world, and energy storage helps maintain stable power supply.
Domestic market:
1) Electricity market-oriented reform to broaden electricity price fluctuations
2) Policies clarify the positioning of energy storage, and mechanism improvement is on the agenda
3) Policy promotion has further widened the peak-to-trough price gap.
4) The quality of life has improved, and per capita electricity consumption has entered an upward channel.
It is expected that the newly installed household storage capacity in the world will reach 159.1GW in 2026, which is about 25 times that of 2021. The five-year CAGR is 91%. Calculated based on the user price of 6.7 yuan/wh, the newly installed household storage capacity in five years will bring 25,000 yuan. billion market space.
The core of the household savings system lies in economy + product power + brand power
Household savings system products are developed around user needs, and what users value most is economy. In addition, the household savings system has a brand effect. Benefiting from the influence of customer stickiness and brand effect, the household savings system has a stable leading position. Among them, Tesla has strong brand power, high-quality products, excellent technical routes, and good economics, creating the strongest consumer attributes, and future demand is expected to rise further. The economical drive of Peneng Technology makes it the first choice for cost-effectiveness. The industrial chain of leading enterprises will benefit deeply from the explosion of household savings.
Figure 2: The core of the household savings system lies in economy, product power, and brand power.
In the household storage market, all the heroes are competing, and those who win the users will win the world.
The upstream of household storage is the battery industry and the electrical equipment industry, and the downstream is channel dealers and household users.
1) In terms of specific structure, the battery is the core of household storage, the PCS is the hub between energy storage and the power grid, the energy management system is the "brain" of energy storage, and the temperature control system and fire protection system are the umbrella of energy storage.
2) In terms of technology trends, in the battery sector, lithium iron phosphate is the mainstream energy storage battery, and sodium-ion batteries are expected to become the future technology trend; in the energy storage converter sector, hybrid smart light-storage inverters are developing.
3) From the perspective of competition landscape, the energy storage battery market is highly concentrated. The rapid expansion of the industry coupled with the slowdown in technological progress has transformed the core competitiveness of batteries into customer stickiness, sales channels, and compatibility.
