With policy support in the early stages of commercialization, there is great potential for the future
Energy storage market: In the context of carbon neutrality, new energy storage is the general trend
In the context of carbon neutrality, it has become a global consensus to promote the energy revolution and build a new power system with new energy as the main body. Energy storage has become a core link in coordinating interactive source grid load storage and achieving a dynamic balance between power supply and demand. Among them, new energy storage has fast response, flexible configuration, and short construction period. It effectively circumvents the geographical restrictions of traditional pumped storage, improves the flexibility of the power system, and provides important support for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. It has become a storage The only way to upgrade and transform the energy industry. After experiencing the gestation of the "13th Five-Year Plan", my country's new energy storage market is expected to reach a new level during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. 2021 is the first year for my country's new energy storage to develop from the early stage of commercialization to large-scale development. According to statistics from the CNESA Global Energy Storage Project Database, as of the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of power energy storage projects in operation in my country is 46.1GW, accounting for 10% of the global market. 22% of the total scale, a year-on-year increase of 30%. Among them, the market growth mainly comes from new energy storage, with the cumulative installed capacity reaching 5729.7MW, a year-on-year increase of 74.5%. As of the end of 2022, the installed capacity of new energy storage projects in operation across the country has reached 8.7 million kilowatts, with an average energy storage time of approximately 2.1 hours, an increase of more than 110.0% from the end of 2021, and strong growth momentum. Taking advantage of the "dual carbon" strategy, national and local governments have intensively introduced a number of policies to promote the scale and comprehensive development of the energy storage market.
Figure 1: New energy storage is the general trend
National policy: Intensive introduction to clarify the status of independent market entities for new energy storage
Since the National Energy Administration's "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Energy Storage Technology and Industry" clarified the great significance, overall requirements, key tasks and safeguard measures for developing my country's energy storage technology and industry, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Science and Technology , China Electricity Council and other departments have successively introduced a number of policies to lead the development of new energy storage. In July 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Guidance on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage", pointing out that by 2025, new energy storage will be transformed from the early stage of commercialization to large-scale development, with the installed capacity reaching more than 30GW. By 2030, comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage will be achieved, the development goal of new energy storage within ten years will be clarified, and its important position in promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the energy field will be established. At the end of July 21, the National Development and Reform Commission further issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Time-of-Use Electricity Pricing Mechanism", proposing to reasonably widen the peak-valley electricity price difference and expand the implementation scope of the time-of-use electricity price mechanism to industrial and commercial electricity users. This move effectively promotes the improvement of industry profitability. Promoted the rapid development of the energy storage market. Over the past 22 years, national energy storage policies have been intensively introduced, with increasing intensity and improving details, further promoting the participation of new energy storage in the power market and dispatching applications, and clarifying the technical standard system, production scale, operating mechanism, etc. for different types of new energy storage. Provides clearer guidance on various aspects.
Local policies: fiscal subsidies + compulsory allocation of reserves to promote rapid development of the industry
In order to support the smooth implementation of new energy storage "peak shaving and valley filling", local governments have successively introduced energy storage subsidy policies
On July 23, 2022, Chongqing’s “Notice on Carrying out the Application for the 2022 Tongliang District Optical Storage Integrated Demonstration Project (Draft for Comments)” proposed to provide a one-time subsidy of 1.3 yuan/Wh according to the scale of energy storage facilities. If When building energy storage facilities, new photovoltaic equipment will be built at the same time. A one-time subsidy of 2.9 yuan/W will be provided for the newly built photovoltaic equipment; on November 7, the General Office of the People's Government of Changsha City, Hunan Province issued a notice on supporting the development of advanced energy storage materials industry The implementation opinions support enterprises in using energy storage power stations to reduce electricity costs, and provide energy storage power station operators with a reward of 0.3 yuan/KWh based on the actual discharge of the energy storage power station. The annual reward for a single enterprise shall not exceed 3 million yuan. The implementation of local subsidy policies will help reduce electricity costs, increase the profitability of energy storage power stations, increase industry investment enthusiasm, and promote the sustainable development of the energy storage market.
In addition to subsidy policies, many provinces and cities have implemented compulsory allocation of reserves
In order to promote the allocation of energy storage for new energy and reduce the impact of new energy projects on the consumption capacity of the power grid, under the guidance of central policies, relevant departments in various regions have introduced mandatory allocation and storage policy documents based on local conditions to promote the allocation of energy storage for new energy. Relevant documents put forward certain requirements for energy storage configuration proportions and charging hours. The configuration of energy storage in new energy projects has been changed from "encouraged" to "required", opening up incremental space for the domestic energy storage market. At present, more than 24 provinces and autonomous regions across the country have announced allocation and reserve policies. In most provinces, the allocation and reserve ratio is between 8% and 30%, and the allocation time is mainly 1 to 2 hours, and can be up to 4 hours.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, local governments exceeded planned installation targets and seized opportunities to scale up new energy storage
The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical stage for energy storage to transform from the early stage of commercialization to large-scale development. Twenty provinces and cities including Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Guangdong, Hubei, Zhejiang, and Beijing have planned new energy storage installation targets during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. By 2025, the new energy storage installed capacity target will reach 66.55GW. Among them, Qinghai, Gansu, and Shanxi The largest energy scale, new energy storage is expected to have an installed capacity of 6GW in 2025. The establishment of new energy storage installation targets will help mobilize the investment enthusiasm of all parties, promote stable investment and growth, better stabilize market expectations, and enhance development potential.
Figure 2: The two-pronged approach of fiscal subsidies and compulsory allocation of reserves has boosted the rapid development of the industry.
New energy storage: its potential is established and its development is waiting to happen
In the next five years, "new energy + energy storage" will be the main application scenario for new energy storage, and policy promotion will be the main growth driver; according to the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance (CNESA)'s forecast of my country's new energy storage market size in the next five years, If policy implementation, cost reduction, technology improvement and other factors do not meet expectations in a conservative scenario: the cumulative scale of new energy storage is expected to reach 48.5GW in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.3% from 2022 to 2026, and the market will Showing a steady and rapid growth trend. Optimistic scenario: As the power market gradually improves, energy storage supply chain supporting facilities and business models become increasingly mature, new energy storage will stand out from the competition with its advantages such as short construction period, small environmental impact, and low site selection requirements. It is expected that the cumulative scale of new energy storage will reach 79.5GW in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 69.2% from 2022 to 2026.
New energy storage: diverse technical routes to help the power grid operate smoothly
Energy storage is the key to solving new energy grid problems
Wind power + photovoltaic power generation has the characteristics of volatility, intermittent, and randomness, and the electricity generated has poor stability. The increase in the proportion of new energy power generation will seriously affect the stability of the power grid. In addition to the influence of geographical factors, wind and solar power generation are generally located in the northwest region, where the local population is small, the scale of industry is small, and the consumption capacity is limited, resulting in serious abandonment of light and electricity. At the same time, the power demand from the grid user side fluctuates greatly within a day, which affects the stability of the grid. Energy storage technology can store excess photovoltaic power generation in batteries during the day, making greater use of photovoltaic power generation and reducing electricity bills. At the same time, it can store power during off-peak hours, transfer energy to peak hours, avoid expanding transformer capacity, and provide high reliability. Variable load peak value to ensure smooth operation of the power grid.
There are various types of new energy storage technologies to meet the diversified needs of the market.
New energy storage refers to new energy storage technologies other than pumped hydro energy storage, including lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, flywheels, compressed air, hydrogen (ammonia) energy storage, thermal (cold) energy storage, etc. Compared with pumped hydro energy storage, new energy storage technology projects have short construction cycles, simple and flexible site selection, strong adjustment capabilities, and are better matched with new energy development and consumption, and their advantages are gradually becoming more and more prominent. There are various types of new energy storage with different characteristics. For example, flywheel energy storage refers to an energy storage method that uses an electric motor to drive a flywheel to rotate at high speed, and then uses the flywheel to drive a generator to generate electricity when needed. The technical characteristics are high power density and long life, and is suitable for Short-term energy storage; compressed air energy storage is a physical energy storage technology that can operate with high power and for a long time, and is often used in long-term energy storage systems. The large-scale development of new energy storage technology will gradually expand from standby (off-grid black start) and power (smooth power fluctuations, frequency modulation) applications to energy (temporary peak output of about 1 hour) and capacity (more than 4 hours The application of peak shaving and valley filling) meets the diversified needs of the energy storage market.
Pumped hydro energy storage occupies an absolute share, and new energy storage lithium batteries occupy the mainstream
According to incomplete statistics from CNESA's global energy storage project database, as of the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of power energy storage projects in operation in my country is 46.1GW, of which the largest cumulative installed capacity of pumped hydro is 39.8GW, accounting for 86.3%; new models Energy storage accounts for 12.5%, and the market share of lithium-ion batteries in new energy storage is as high as 89.7%, occupying the absolute mainstream; by the end of 2022, the share of lithium-ion batteries in new energy storage will further increase to 94.5%, and the penetration rate of flow batteries will accelerate to 1.6 %, showing a strong competitive advantage.
Figure 3: Pumped hydro energy storage occupies an absolute share, and new energy storage lithium batteries occupy the mainstream
Compared with pumped hydro energy storage, electrochemical energy storage has strong flexible adjustment capabilities.
A pumped storage power station uses a turbine to drive a generator to rotate to generate electrical energy, which is connected to the power grid through a transformer. Therefore, its adjustment speed is the same as that of conventional hydropower units, and it does not have the ability to quickly adjust. Electrochemical energy storage technology mainly realizes the conversion of electrical energy and chemical energy through battery or supercapacitor technology. The comprehensive energy efficiency can reach 85% to 90%. It mainly includes lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries, flow batteries, etc. It not only has a fast response speed and flexible adjustment capabilities, but also has high energy density and can store a large capacity of electrical energy. It also has technical advantages such as strong environmental adaptability, small-scale decentralized configuration, and short construction period, and can better stabilize the situation. The power fluctuation of distributed power sources promotes system accommodation.
The lithium battery industry chain is highly mature, and the commercialization turning point for sodium and vanadium batteries is approaching.
Lithium battery: shared power and energy storage, highly mature industry chain
The large-scale development of power batteries has laid a solid foundation for the energy storage field
On June 29, 2022, the "Twenty-Five Key Requirements to Prevent Electric Power Production Accidents (2022 Edition)" issued by the General Affairs Department of the National Energy Administration mentioned that medium and large electrochemical energy storage power stations must not use ternary lithium batteries, sodium Sulfur batteries are not suitable for echelon utilization power batteries, so lithium iron phosphate batteries have become the main technical route for electrochemical energy storage. In addition to differences in electrochemical performance indicators and appearance dimensions, lithium iron phosphate batteries used for power and energy storage are highly consistent in material system design, battery packaging structure (square aluminum shell), production equipment and processes. Therefore, the rapid growth of power batteries and the increase in the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries have accelerated the maturity and scale of the industry, significantly reduced costs, and laid the foundation for its application in the energy storage field.
Low cost and long life are the technical directions pursued by energy storage batteries
Compared with power battery consumers, consumers pay more attention to experience. Energy storage batteries are investment products and have the characteristics of new infrastructure. They pay more attention to return on investment, payback cycle, kilowatt-hour cost, initial investment cost, etc. Therefore, the pursuit of low cost and long life has become the main direction for the development of lithium iron phosphate battery technology. In 2020, CATL developed an advanced long-life zero-attenuation battery, which can achieve zero attenuation within 1,500 cycles, and was successfully used in the first phase of the Fujian Jinjiang energy storage power station pilot project (30MW/108MWh). It is the industry's first cycle life battery Lithium iron phosphate battery with a battery life of more than 12,000 times. In October 2022, Everview Lithium Energy released the LF560K battery, which has an ultra-large capacity of 560Ah. A single battery can store 1.792kWh of energy and has a cycle life of more than 12,000 times. It uses ultra-large battery CTT (Cell to TWh) technology to reduce the total system cost. In system integration applications, it can reduce the number of battery cells by 50%, simplify the number of Pack components by 47%, and improve production efficiency by 30%.
The energy storage battery industry chain can be divided into upstream materials, midstream energy storage systems and integration, and downstream power system energy storage applications.
The upstream is the same as the power battery industry chain, including positive electrodes, negative electrodes, separators, electrolytes, etc. The midstream of the industrial chain is mainly the integration and manufacturing of energy storage systems, including the four major components of battery packs, battery management systems (BMS), energy management systems (EMS) and energy storage converters (PCS). The battery pack is the most important component of the energy storage system and is responsible for energy storage; the battery management system is mainly responsible for battery monitoring, evaluation, protection and balancing; the energy management system is responsible for data collection, network monitoring and energy dispatching; the energy storage transformer The current converter can control the charging and discharging process of the energy storage battery pack and perform AC and DC conversion. The downstream mainly includes power system energy storage on the power generation side, grid side and user side.
Figure 4: The energy storage battery industry chain can be divided into upstream materials, midstream energy storage systems and integration, and downstream power system energy storage applications
Sodium electricity: obvious material cost advantage, accelerated commercialization process
Abundant sodium resources have material cost advantages
In the periodic table of elements, sodium and lithium belong to the first main group and have similar physical and chemical properties. They both show similar "rocking chair" electrochemical charge and discharge behavior in battery operation. They have the same working principle and similar battery structures. In recent years, lithium resource reserves have been scarce (content: 0.0065%), unevenly distributed, and prices have skyrocketed. On the contrary, sodium mineral resource reserves are very abundant (content accounts for 2.75%), and the distribution is balanced and not restricted by geography. Therefore, sodium power has attracted a lot of attention. In addition, the current collector selection is different. The negative side of the sodium-ion battery uses lower-cost aluminum foil as the current collector. If the lithium battery uses aluminum foil, it is easy to undergo an alloying reaction with metallic lithium, resulting in rapid capacity attenuation. According to Zhongke Haina's calculations, when the lithium price is 150,000 yuan/ton, the theoretical material cost of sodium-ion batteries can still be 30%-40% lower than that of lithium batteries, with obvious advantages.
Cathode material technology is diverse and a hundred flowers are blooming
It is reported that the current sodium-ion battery cathode material system is mainly divided into three technical routes: layered transition metal oxide, polyanion type and Prussian blue type. The layered transition metal oxide cathode has the characteristics of low cost, simple process, and relatively mature technology, and is the first to be mass-produced. Prussian blue is low-cost, has high specific capacity and energy density, excellent rate performance, and has great potential in the future. The polyanionic material system is similar to the lithium iron phosphate material. It has low cost, no resource restrictions, good recycling and safety, and is suitable for large-scale applications. It is expected to be applied to the energy storage market on a large scale in the future. Diversified technical routes, compatible and complementary with lithium batteries, are an important guarantee for the long-term and stable development of my country's new energy industry.
The commercialization of sodium-ion batteries is accelerating, and 2023 is expected to be the first year of mass production
Since the release of the first-generation sodium-ion battery by CATL in July 2021, the commercialization process of sodium electricity has accelerated, and it is expected that a basic industrial chain will be initially formed in 23 years. On October 27, 2022, Chuanyi Technology’s sodium power pilot line was successfully put into operation. The first phase of the 4.5GWh mass production line is expected to be put into operation in 2023. It is also equipped with 30,000 tons/year of cathode materials, 40,000 tons/year of anode materials and 150,000 tons of electrolyte and build an integrated industrial development model. On November 29, 2022, the world's first GWh-class sodium-ion battery production line of Zhongke Haina (Fuyang) rolled off the production line. It is expected to expand production to 3GWh-5GWh in 2023, and is expected to complete 100MW-class sodium-ion battery energy storage System implementation. In addition, China Energy Construction Anhui Institute won the bid for the Three Gorges Energy Anhui Fuyang energy storage system EPC project. This project is currently the largest sodium-ion energy storage battery project in China, including 270MW/540MWh lithium iron phosphate batteries and 30MW/60MWh sodium-ion batteries. , it is expected to be fully put into operation in June 2023. Supply and demand are booming, and the commercialization process of sodium-ion batteries has reached an inflection point.
Figure 5: The commercialization of sodium-ion batteries is accelerating, and 2023 is expected to be the first year of mass production.
Vanadium electricity: long life and high safety, energy storage rookie welcomes the dawn of commercialization
Vanadium battery is a long-life and highly safe flow battery
Vanadium battery is called an all-vanadium redox flow battery. It stores chemical energy in sulfuric acid electrolyte of vanadium ions in different valence states. The electrolytic fluid is pumped into the battery stack through an external pump, allowing it to circulate in different storage tanks and The electrolyte solution circulates in a closed loop of the half-cell and flows through the electrode surface in parallel to undergo an electrochemical reaction. The current is collected and conducted through the double electrode plates, thereby converting the chemical energy stored in the solution into electrical energy; the water of the all-vanadium redox flow battery The base electrolyte properties can prevent it from burning and exploding, making it highly safe. The power and capacity of the battery are independent of each other, realizing the separation of cell power and capacity. The capacity can be expanded by increasing the capacity of the liquid storage tank. It also has a long cycle life of up to 16,000 times, making it suitable for large-scale energy storage scenarios.
Used for long-term energy storage with obvious economic benefits
The output power and energy storage capacity of the all-vanadium redox flow battery can be independent of each other. The longer the energy storage time, the shared cost per unit of electricity will be greatly reduced, and the cheaper the price. Especially if the energy storage time exceeds 4 hours, the cost per whh is reduced to less than 3 yuan. In addition, the electrolyte of the all-vanadium redox flow battery can be regenerated and recycled online or offline. 1kWh of the electrolyte contains approximately 8kg of high-purity V2O5, and the residual value rate of the electrolyte is very high. According to calculations, for a system with an energy storage time of 4 hours, the initial investment cost is 3,000 yuan/kWh, the residual value of the battery system is 1,125 yuan/kWh, and the actual cost is approximately 1,875 yuan/kWh. If the energy storage system has an energy storage time of 10 hours, the initial investment cost is 2100 yuan/kWh, the residual value of the battery system is 1080 yuan/kWh, and the actual cost is only 1020 yuan/kWh. Therefore, from a life cycle perspective, all-vanadium redox flow batteries have low cost of electricity, high cost performance and good economic benefits.
Initial installation costs drop more than expected
Due to the imperfection of the industrial chain and the constraints of high initial installation costs, the commercialization of vanadium power has been relatively slow; on November 3, 2022, CNNC Huineng announced the winning bidders for the 1GWh flow battery energy storage procurement, and five candidates won the bid. The unit price range is 2.2 yuan/Wh~3.6 yuan/Wh. Among them, the average bidding price of Dalian Rongke Energy Storage and Liquid Flow Energy Storage Company was 2.65 yuan/Wh and 2.2 yuan/Wh respectively. Compared with the unit price of SPIC Hubei project in August 21, which was 3.8 yuan/Wh, the initial installation cost price dropped. Exceeding expectations will help promote the large-scale application of vanadium batteries.
Vanadium electricity business process is accelerating, and the future prospects are promising
In March 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for New Energy Storage Development during the 14th Five-Year Plan", which clearly proposed that hundreds of megawatt flow battery technology be included in the new energy storage core technology and equipment during the 14th Five-Year Plan. One of the key research directions. The policy outlines the development prospects and promotes the continuous acceleration of the commercialization process of vanadium battery energy storage. So far in 2020, according to statistics from Zhongyan Puhua Industrial Research Institute, the planned installed capacity of vanadium battery projects has reached 6GW, with a capacity of more than 20GWh. At the same time, the first GWh-level centralized procurement bid for all-vanadium redox flow battery energy storage was opened, and the Dalian redox flow battery energy storage peaking power station, the first national-level large-scale chemical energy storage demonstration project, was officially connected to the grid for power generation. According to EV Tank's forecast, a large number of domestic vanadium battery energy storage projects will start construction in 2022, and the new installed capacity is expected to reach 0.6GW throughout the year; the new scale of vanadium batteries will reach 2.3GW in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 40%. The new increase will reach 4.5GW, and the cumulative installed capacity of vanadium battery energy storage projects will reach 24GW.
Domestic companies have laid out the vanadium electricity industry chain
The stack and electrolyte are the core components of the flow battery. The stack is mainly composed of ion exchange membranes, electrodes, bipolar plates, etc. Representative companies include Dalian Rongke, Beijing Puneng, Sichuan Weilide, etc. The ion exchange membrane can separate the positive and negative electrolytes and selectively pass qualified ions. However, due to its complicated preparation process, it has long been monopolized by a few manufacturers in the United States and Japan such as DuPont, Gore, and Asahi Glass. Domestic companies such as Dongyue Group and Jiangsu Kerun are accelerating their domestic substitution. Electrolyte accounts for 40% of the battery cost, and representative companies include Dalian Borong and Hunan Yinfeng. The raw material of the core component of the electrolyte is vanadium pentoxide. Domestic vanadium resource production capacity is relatively concentrated. Companies such as Panzhihua Iron and Steel Vanadium Titanium and Hegang Co., Ltd. are world leaders in the comprehensive use of vanadium and titanium resources and the production of vanadium products.
