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Tesla’s semiconductor composition: demand is experiencing explosive growth

Tesla’s “brain”: power IGBT chip

Since new energy vehicles no longer require mechanical components such as engines, the structure of the car will become very simple. The structure of the car is mainly composed of batteries, motors and electronic controls. New energy vehicle electronic systems mainly include battery management systems, motor controllers, on-board chargers, converters, inverters, steering systems, relays and passive components.

In actual application scenarios, since each module of the car uses alternating current, the input current of the lithium battery is direct current, and the voltages of various electrical equipment are different, this requires a corresponding power conversion system. According to the different conversion sequences of direct current (DC) and alternating current (AC), power conversion is divided into 4 modes: transformer (AC-AC), rectifier (AC-DC), converter (DC-DC) and inverter (DC- AC).

 

Tesla power conversion process

 

Automotive electronics occupies a very important position in automobiles. From the perspective of cost structure, it is more important for mid-to-high-end automobiles, electric vehicles, etc. From traditional cars to new energy cars, the biggest increase in value is power semiconductors. In traditional fuel vehicles, power semiconductors are mainly used in the fields of starting, stopping and safety, accounting for only 20%. According to the value of a semiconductor bicycle in a traditional vehicle, it is worth US$350, and the value of power devices is US$70. New energy vehicle battery power modules require a large amount of power equipment, which all contain power semiconductors. The power devices of hybrid vehicles account for 40%, and the power devices of pure electric vehicles account for 55%. According to the semiconductor bicycles of pure electric vehicles At a value of US$750, the power semiconductor bicycle is worth US$413. The power semiconductors used in new energy vehicles are seven times that of traditional vehicles.

 

Proportion of automotive electronics for various models

 

In automotive applications, IGBTs are mainly used in electric drive systems, power systems and charging piles in high-voltage environments. The application range is generally in areas with a withstand voltage of more than 600V, a current of more than 10A, and a frequency of more than 1KHz.

  • Electric drive system: Mainly used in an inverter (DC-AC) to convert the 12V direct current (DC) power of the rechargeable battery into the 220V alternating current (AC) power that drives the motor. It is the core of the motor drive. The motor control system requires dozens of IGBTs. For example, Tesla's three-phase AC asynchronous motor uses 28 IGBTs per phase, totaling 84. Other motors have 12 IGBTs. Tesla uses a total of 96 IGBTs.
  • Power supply system: Mainly used in vehicle chargers (AC-DC) and converters (DC-DC) to achieve lithium battery charging and power conversion at the required voltage level.
  • Charging piles: The electricity in the grid is all alternating current (AC) power, and charging piles are divided into fast-charging DC charging piles and slow-charging AC charging piles. IGBT is mainly used in DC fast-charging charging piles.

The global automotive IGBT market capacity in 2018 was US$1.84 billion, and we estimate that the automotive IGBT market capacity in 2020 will be US$2.08 billion.

 

Automotive IGBT market space (100 million US dollars)

 

Infineon, Mitsubishi and Fuji Electric are leading the global IGBT market. ON Semiconductor (Fairchild) mainly focuses on the low-voltage consumer electronics industry, with voltages below 600V, and medium and high-voltage fields above 1700V, which are mainly used in high-speed rail, automobiles, smart grids, etc., and are basically monopolized by Infineon, ABB and Mitsubishi.

 

Global IGBT competitive landscape

 

Tesla’s “eyes”: CIS chip

Visual ADAS uses cameras to realize various functions such as road signs, pedestrian and vehicle recognition, and lane line sensing. Various auxiliary equipment in high-end cars can be equipped with up to 8 cameras to assist the driver in parking or trigger emergency braking. Mcnex predicts that if cameras replace side-view mirrors in the future, the number of cameras on cars may reach 12. With the development of smart car technology and autonomous driving technology, the demand for cameras in L3 and above smart driving models will increase.

 

Tesla camera chip layout

 

CIS applications in the automotive field include: rear view camera (RVC), all-round view system (SVS), camera monitoring system (CMS), FV/MV, DMS/IMS system. Rearview cameras (RVC) are the main sales force and show a steady growth trend. Global sales were 51 million units in 2016, 60 million units in 2018, and are expected to reach 65 million units in 2019. At the same time, global sales of FV/MV are growing rapidly, reaching 10 million units in 2016 and 30 million units in 2018. After that, FV/MV is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend, with sales expected to reach 40 million units in 2019 and 2021. It can reach 75 million units, which is close to the global sales volume of RVC.

 

Sales volume of different CIS applications in the automotive field

 

According to the China Business Industry Research Institute, global vehicle camera shipments are expected to increase from 28 million units in 2014 to 82.7 million units in 2020. Nowadays, most countries are formulating corresponding regulations to force new cars to use some special ADAS technologies. In-vehicle cameras are widely used in automobile intelligence and will become the most used automobile sensor in the future.

 

Global automotive camera shipments

 

Tesla’s “memory”: memory

In the self-driving circuit board announced by Tesla equipped with two FSD chips, the blue area in the picture is the memory particles used to store the operating system. Considering the future move towards higher-level autonomous driving technology, there is an obvious trend towards large-capacity memory particles carrying deep learning models that can be continuously upgraded in the future.

The green on both sides of the processor module are 4 pieces each, for a total of 8 LPDDR4 running memory chips. The LPDDR4 RAM memory module built into the FSD circuit board runs at a speed of 4,266Gb per second, with a peak bandwidth of 68GB/s, making the integrated image signal processor Can perform operations up to 1 billion pixels per second.

 

Tesla’s self-driving circuit board equipped with FSD chip

 

Tesla's "touch": display panel

Tesla is expected to drive the trend of application of electronic components in new energy vehicles, including large central control screens (BOE A, TCL Group), automotive precision metal components, battery connector modules (Anjie Technology), central control display modules Group (Changxin Technology), automotive LED headlights (Sanan Optoelectronics), etc. The central control display screen of Tesla Model series products reaches an average of 17 inches, which is higher than the average size of 7-8 inches for ordinary fuel vehicles, and is about four times the market average application size area. The electronic application trend of automobiles will drive the area growth demand of LCD car screens.

Secondly, car screens have strong customization characteristics and are usually equipped with touch functions. Compared with ordinary LCD standardized products, their revenue and profit flexibility are higher. Currently, automotive screen applications are still dominated by a-Si LCD products, which are expected to account for 90%, mainly due to higher product reliability and slower product iterations. LTPS LCD accounts for about 10%. LTPS has advantages in high integration and high resolution. New energy/Internet car companies are more willing to use LTPS. As the production capacity of the LTPS industry gradually shifts from the mobile phone market to the IT and automotive markets, the automotive market share is expected to further increase in the future.

 

Tesla central control scene

 

According to statistics from TCL CSOT, global automotive screen shipments in 2019 were approximately 170 million pieces. Based on an average size of 7 inches, this corresponds to a monthly production capacity requirement of approximately 100K for the 6th generation line. The increase in the average size of vehicle-mounted screens and the number of bicycle applications will further rapidly drive demand for LCD production capacity. At present, the Japanese company JDI is the leading company in the automotive screen market. Its automotive screen products are mainly instruments. Its a-Si/LTPS LCD shipments rank first in the world, of which LTPS accounts for about 70% of the market share. .

Anjie Technology entered the automotive electronic metal parts market through the acquisition of Singapore's Shixin Group in 2014. In 2016, it successfully developed the new energy vehicle business and entered the Tesla supply chain. Currently, it has formed a large-scale supply of battery connector modules. In the future, as the localization rate of Tesla's Shanghai factory components increases and new models such as Model Y are shipped, its revenue scale and supply material types are expected to further increase.

 

 

Changxin Technology’s touch display module business covers high-quality customers around the world. At present, it has formed a leading position in touch modules in the fields of automotive electronics, consumer electronics, and wearable devices. In the field of new energy vehicles, central control screen products for Model X/S models are currently available, and central control products for Model 3 and other models are in the process of product certification.

Lens Technology has been cooperating with Tesla for more than a year and is a global first-tier supplier. Current products include central control product assembly, including glass, touch, lamination devices, and B-pillar module overall functional component assembly. Continue to benefit from Tesla's shipment growth and the overall application trend of new energy vehicles.

 

Tesla B-pillar components

 

As the flagship brand of new energy vehicles, Tesla has all models equipped with standard LED headlights, including high beams, low beams, etc., which is expected to drive the continued penetration of LED lamps into new energy vehicles and benefit Sanan Optoelectronics, a leading domestic LED manufacturer.

 

The "heart" of Tesla: FPGA chip

Automotive semiconductors have a market size of 38.9 billion, and FPGA currently only accounts for 2.4%. The development of autonomous driving will increase the value share of FPGA and ASIC. Automobile main control chips include GPU, FPGA, ASIC, etc. The application of FPGA in cameras and sensors is relatively mature. In the future, it will have more applications in ADAS/AD systems, motor control, lidar, vehicle infotainment systems and driver information systems. Multiple applications. According to Bloomberg data, the automotive semiconductor market reached US$38.86 billion in 2017, of which FPGA accounted for US$950 million, accounting for only 2.44%. There is huge room for improvement.

 

Automotive semiconductor market size

 

Upstream wafer foundry will benefit from the increase in demand for downstream products. According to company announcements, SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor’s automotive and industrial market revenue accounted for 4.8%/25% respectively in the third quarter of 2019. If downstream FPGA and ASIC are affected by new The purchase of energy vehicles will help the foundry's performance growth.

 

The overall silicon content of electric vehicles has increased, benefiting semiconductor equipment in the supporting industry

Cars, especially electric cars, are gradually evolving from a mechanical product to an electronic product. Their core capabilities are no longer engines, chassis and power transmission systems, but chips and software. The silicon content of electric vehicle electronic devices continues to increase, which is good for semiconductor equipment in the supporting industry.

5G+AIOT+automotive electronics drives global semiconductor equipment to enter a new upward cycle. Mainland China takes over the focus of semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Mainland China's global share of the equipment market continues to increase, and is expected to rank first in the world in 2021. Starting from Q2 of 2019, mainland independent wafer fabs will enter their peak production period, and the demand for semiconductor equipment will usher in explosive growth in the next three years. According to statistics on the start-up and production of independent wafer fabs in mainland China from 2017 to the present, the cumulative total investment in semiconductor equipment in the next 19-22 years is estimated to be around US$70 billion. Compared with US$12 billion in 2018, there is a lot of room for growth. The wafer fab itself is expanding its production. There is a procurement demand for cost reduction, which is conducive to improving the localization rate. In 2018, the localization rate was less than 15%, and there is huge room for improvement.

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