In the 100-year evolution of the automobile industry, fuel vehicles have been firmly in the market dominance with their mature power systems and infrastructure. Even though electric vehicles (EVs) have grown at an impressive rate in recent years, their reliability and safety have been criticized or even suppressed. However, with key technological breakthroughs and shifts in user perceptions, this situation is fundamentally changing. Recently, the latest data released by the German Automobile Club (ADAC), Europe's largest roadside assistance organization, further confirms this trend: the reliability of electric vehicles has surpassed that of gasoline vehicles. This change not only subverts the conventional wisdom, but also provides a clear guide for the future development path of the global automotive industry.
1. Hard-core data: the reliability of electric vehicles has surpassed it
According to the 2024 Vehicle Breakdown Statistics Report published by the ADAC, the organization handled more than 3.6 million roadside assistance incidents throughout the year. Of these, electric vehicles accounted for only 1.2% of the total number of rescues (about 43,678 cases), which is much lower than its market share in new car registrations in Germany (about 14%), indicating that the failure rate of electric vehicles is significantly lower than the overall level.
Further analysis of data on vehicles first registered from 2020 to 2022 reveals that:
The average failure rate for electric vehicles is 4.2 per 1,000 vehicles;
During the same period, the failure rate of conventional fuel vehicles was as high as 10.4 per 1,000 vehicles.
In other words, the failure rate of gasoline vehicles is more than 2.5 times that of electric vehicles. This data source is clear, the sample is extensive, and it is highly convincing, marking the first time that electric vehicles have achieved an overall surpass of fuel vehicles in terms of reliability indicators.
It should be pointed out that whether it is a fuel vehicle or an electric vehicle, the main cause of failure is the 12-volt auxiliary battery problem. About 50% of EV failures are attributed to 12-volt battery failures, compared to 45% in gasoline vehicles. This reflects that regardless of the drive form, the reliability of low-voltage electrical systems is still a shortcoming that the industry needs to pay attention to.
Figure: ADAC's rescue data shows that the reliability of electric vehicles exceeds that of fuel vehicles (picture from the Internet)
2. Technical interpretation: why are electric vehicles more reliable?
Behind the reliability of electric vehicles is the fundamental difference between the power system and the vehicle architecture.
First, component complexity is drastically reduced.
Traditional internal combustion engine vehicles contain many mechanical parts such as engines, transmissions, cooling systems, and fuel systems, with more than 2,000 moving parts.
Electric vehicles, on the other hand, are simplified to motors, inverters, and battery packs, with less than half the moving parts of the internal combustion engine, greatly reducing the probability of failure.
For example, engine oil leakage, transmission slippage, spark plug failure, and exhaust emission system failure, which are common in fuel vehicles, do not naturally exist in electric vehicles, and the maintenance demand and failure risk are reduced simultaneously.
Secondly, the electronic control system is highly integrated. Electric vehicles typically use a centralized E/E architecture (domain controller) with software updates over the air (OTA) that can remotely fix more than 80% of non-hardware failures. In contrast, traditional fuel vehicles use decentralized ECUs (electronic control units), which have poor compatibility, difficult fault diagnosis, higher maintenance complexity and false positive rate.
Finally, the drive mode is more stable and efficient. The electric motor has instant torque output, no need for complex shift mechanism, low vibration, and low thermal management pressure, which naturally reduces the load and wear of parts and components, and improves the life and stability of the vehicle.
3. Local challenges: tire failure and curb weight problems
Despite their overall reliability, EVs are still slightly inferior in terms of tire failure. ADAC data shows that
For every 1,000 rescue requests, 1.3 were due to tire failures for electric vehicles;
This compares to 0.9 for gasoline vehicles.
The reason for this is that due to the large-capacity battery pack, the weight of electric vehicles is generally 20%-30% higher than that of fuel vehicles of the same level. For example:
The Tesla Model 3 Standard Edition has an empty weight of about 1850 kg;
The Honda Civic 1.5T version is only about 1,300 kg.
Greater vehicle mass not only accelerates tire wear, but also increases the load on the suspension system. However, with the continuous optimization of low-rolling resistance tires, active suspension systems and intelligent tire pressure monitoring systems (TPMS), the new generation of electric vehicles has achieved significant improvements in tire durability.
4. Long-term observation: Is the reliability of electric vehicles sustainable?
One question that remains to be seen is: how will the EV perform over its 10-year life cycle? Since it has only been 5-7 years since mainstream electric models have been on the market on a large scale for only 5-7 years, there is currently a lack of sufficient long-term empirical data. However, the trend is still positive from the existing battery cycle tests and field surveys:
Taking the Tesla Model S as an example, the average battery capacity retention rate still reaches about 90% after more than 200,000 kilometers.
Early models such as the Nissan Leaf also showed good long-term electrical system stability.
In the future, with the popularization of solid-state batteries, large-scale energy management system (BMS) technology, and the application of intelligent thermal management algorithms such as BYD's blade battery temperature control system, the overall reliability of electric vehicles is expected to continue to improve.
5. Industrial transformation: electric vehicles redefine the market structure
The improvement of the reliability of electric vehicles is triggering a systematic reshaping of the automotive industry chain.
Consumer: Reduced repair frequency and maintenance costs. According to Consumer Reports (CR) in the United States, the average maintenance cost of an electric vehicle is about $0.06 per mile, much lower than the $0.10 cost of a gasoline vehicle.
Manufacturing: In the R&D investment of OEMs, the proportion of electronic control, intelligence, and battery management systems continues to rise, while the R&D investment of traditional engines has been declining year by year.
Supply chain: The demand for semiconductors, power electronics, smart sensors and other fields has exploded, accelerating the penetration of high-tech products such as IGBTs, SiC power devices, and domain control chips.
Typical examples:
BYD and Tesla's self-developed electronic control chips;
Infineon and Onsemi increase SiC chip production capacity expansion;
Local Chinese semiconductor companies such as Horizon and Black Sesame Intelligence have accelerated the deployment of intelligent driving SoC chips.
6. Future outlook: Reliability improvement is just the beginning
Going forward, the EV reliability benefits will continue to expand in the following areas:
Software-defined vehicles (SDVs) have become the mainstream, and software OTA updates are frequent to reduce the number of physical maintenance.
The intelligent battery management system (iBMS) monitors and dynamically optimizes the charging and discharging strategies in real time to delay battery aging.
The application of new materials, such as self-healing coated tires and low-loss nano-battery materials, can improve the durability of the whole vehicle;
Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) interactive technology has been popularized to optimize energy utilization and enhance battery life cycle management.
According to McKinsey's forecast, the global electric vehicle market penetration rate will reach more than 45% by 2030, with China, Europe and the United States as the three core growth engines.
Conclusion
The latest study released by ADAC marks an important milestone: electric vehicles are not only leading the trend in environmental protection, but also surpassing combustion engine vehicles in terms of reliability. Technological change not only brings better driving experience and lower maintenance costs, but also accelerates the evolution of the entire automotive industry ecosystem. In the future, with continuous breakthroughs in battery technology, semiconductor devices, intelligent electronic control architecture, and other fields, electric vehicles will find a more perfect balance between reliability, intelligence, and sustainability, and become the backbone of leading a new round of automotive revolution.
