The energy storage blue ocean is beginning, and overseas residential energy storage is surging
It is reported that due to the instability of new energy, new energy storage has rigid demand. According to application scenarios, energy storage can be divided into three categories: power generation side, transmission and distribution side and power consumption side. Among the energy storage on the power consumption side, household storage accounts for 20%-30%. From the perspective of profit model, household storage is mainly for self-use, supplemented by feeding to grid. From the perspective of development trend, household storage has the trend of integrating optical storage, and all-in-one machines mostly adopt DC coupling, which has higher comprehensive efficiency and high integration, and also effectively reduces soft costs. From the current demand point of view, the global household storage broke out, with Europe leading and the United States following closely. In 2021, the newly installed capacity of global household storage was about 6.4 GWh, up 116.23% year-on-year.
Figure 1: Energy storage started in the blue ocean, and overseas household storage broke out
The economy of light storage integration has improved, and the market economy in Europe and America is high
Based on the operation mode and profit mode of household storage, it can be concluded that the economy of Europe and America is higher, and the IRR of all-in-one optical storage machine is the highest, among which the IRR of all-in-one optical storage machine in Germany is 24.5%, and that in the United States is 13.6%. If other assumptions remain unchanged, taking the United States as an example, further analysis shows that:
1) Total cost decreases by 5%, IRR increases by 1.7 pct, and increasingly marginal utility;
2) Electricity price increased by 0.1 USD/kWh and IRR increased by 0.9 pct;
3) The per capita electricity consumption increases by 50kWh/month, IRR increases by 0.8 pct, and the marginal utility may limited by the scale of optical storage system;
4) Peak and off-peak price difference increased by 5%, and IRR increased by 0.7 pct.
Economy couple with Reliability Drive Overseas Household Storage Demand Explodes
Economic aspects:
1) Energy inflation combined with geopolitical situation raises electricity prices
2) The time-of-use electricity price is normally, and the peak and off-peak price difference are more widens
3) The per capita living electricity consumption is high, and the growth trend is expected to continue. The popularization of new energy vehicles has also become a new driving force for improving household electricity consumption
4) The cost of optical storage electricity has decline and is expected to be further reduced in the future
5) Policies stimulate household storage demand and reduce investment costs
The above factors help improve the economy of household storage system and drive up the demand for household storage. In terms of reliability, power outages occur frequently all over the world, and energy storage helps to maintain the stability of power supply.
In the domestic market:
1) Electricity market reform to broaden the fluctuation of electricity price
2) The policy clarifies the positioning of energy storage, and the improvement of the mechanism is put on the agenda
3) With the promotion of policies, the gap of peak and off-peak price difference is bigger
4) The quality of life has improved, and the per capita electricity consumption is increase
It is estimated that in 2026, the newly installed capacity of global household storage may reach 159.1 GW, which is about 25 times that of 21 years, and the CAGR in 5 years will be 91%. According to the user price of 6.7 yuan/wh, the newly installed capacity of household storage in 5 years will bring 2.5 trillion yuan of market space.
The core of household storage system lies in economy and product power and brand power
Household storage system products are developed around users' needs, and users pay most attention to economy. In addition, the household storage system has brand effect, which benefits from the influence of customer stickiness and brand effect, and the leading position of household storage is stable. Among them, TESLA has strong brand power, high-quality product power, excellent technical route and good economy, creating the strongest consumption attribute, and its future demand is expected to reach a higher level. Driven by the economy of science and technology, PYLON Technologies is the first choice for cost effective. The industrial chain of leading enterprises will benefit deeply with the outbreak of household storage.
Figure 2: The core of household storage system lies in economy, product power and brand power
The household storage market competes with each other, and those who win the user win the world
The upstream of household storage is battery industry and electrical equipment industry, while the downstream is distributor and household users.
1) In terms of specific structure, battery is the core of household storage, PCS is the hub of energy storage and power grid, energy management system is the "brain" of energy storage, and temperature control system and fire protection system are the protective umbrellas of energy storage.
2) For trend, lithium iron phosphate is the mainstream energy storage battery in the battery link, and sodium ion battery is expected to become the future technology trend; Energy storage converter is developing towards hybrid intelligent optical storage inverter.
3) In terms of competition situation, the market concentration of energy storage batteries is high, the rapid expansion of the industry is superimposed on the slowdown of technological progress, and the core competitiveness of batteries turns into customer stickiness, sales channels and compatibility.
Home Energy Storage System is Thriving and Full of Opportunities-China.exportsemi.com
