After a week of inventory, China exportsemi net has given you a comprehensive understanding of the current domestic and foreign representative companies in the humanoid robot industry and their representative products, and also briefly introduced the characteristics and current status of each company. In today's summary meeting, China exportsemi net will explain in detail "the future development trend of humanoid robots" and "opportunities and risks of the humanoid robot industry".
In view of the future development trend of the humanoid robot market, Sinolink Securities believes that the commercial promotion of the industry will be the focus of short-term development in the future, and the selection of driver solutions will be the beginning of commercialization.
Choice of future drive solutions for humanoid robots : "Motor + reducer" is the preferred solution for future commercial promotion. At present, except for Boston Dynamics Atlas, which adopts an electro-hydraulic hybrid drive solution, other manufacturers basically use motor drive. Although hydraulic drive has greater power, it has high manufacturing costs and is difficult to commercialize due to its high noise, easy leakage, sensitivity to pollution, high precision requirements for hydraulic components, and difficulty in maintenance. Therefore, manufacturers such as UBTECH, Xiaomi, and Tesla all use more cost-effective motor drives. In addition, although the torque density of motor drive is lower than that of hydraulic drive, it can be matched with a reducer to meet most of the robot's movement needs. At the same time, it has the advantages of high energy conversion efficiency, easy maintenance, low cost, and regular parts. For example, Tesla Optimus, Fourier GR-1, Zhiyuan Expedition A1, and Zhuimi Universal Humanoid Robot all use the motor + reducer combination solution.
Future application scenarios of humanoid robots : first used in factories, and gradually introduced into homes in the future. Sinolink Securities stated that the future application scenarios of humanoid robots will move from To B to To C, with the first step being towards factories. Because the factory environment is relatively simple, risks are controllable, and costs and benefits are easy to measure and compare. In factories, humanoid robots will replace workers in some relatively boring jobs in the future, but are more flexible and versatile than traditional industrial robots. For example, Agility's humanoid robot Digit is currently used in Amazon factories to help Amazon warehouse employees pick up and move empty suitcases and other repetitive tasks. In addition, Tesla Optimus, Zhiyuan Expedition A1, 1X NEO and other robots have also proposed application plans. In the future, they will be given priority in factory manufacturing, such as in mobile handling, parts assembly, etc. In the future, they plan to gradually come closer to homes and provide cleaning services. Organizing, accompanying the elderly and other fields.
Three major directions for future development of humanoid robot manufacturers
Based on the type of company, Guotai Junan Securities divides the future development direction of humanoid robot manufacturers into three types, namely robot startups, cross-border car companies, and Internet companies.
Robot startups: Motor torque enhancement becomes an important competitive direction The drive motor determines the flexibility and carrying capacity of humanoid robots. In terms of quantity, the more joint motors, the higher the degree of freedom and the more flexible the robot. In terms of quality, indicators such as torque, power density and speed affect the performance of the robot. The greater the output torque, the stronger the carrying capacity. Among the motor-driven humanoid robots currently released, the joint motor performance of domestic robot startups Zhiyuan and Yushu is at a relatively high level in China. Among them, Zhiyuan's self-developed PowerFlow joint motor adopts a quasi-direct drive joint solution, with planetary reducers, conjugated coaxial dual encoders, integrated liquid cooling circulation heat dissipation systems and other components, with a peak torque of over 350Nm. Yushu's self-developed M107 joint motor is used in the knee joint of H1, with a peak torque of 360Nm. Compared with the joint motor of Tesla humanoid robots, it is smaller, lighter and has stronger power performance. In the view of Guojin Securities, the research and development capabilities of high-torque and high-power motors will become the core competitive direction of future robot startups.
Cross-border car companies: Reuse of sensory capabilities is the top priority. Cross-border humanoid robots of car companies have the advantage of sensing systems, and humanoid robots have stronger walking and obstacle-crossing abilities. For example, Tesla Optimus uses the same fully autonomous driving system FSD and perception computing unit as Tesla electric vehicles, and reuses the algorithm technology in the automotive field on robots, allowing Optimus to perceive the surrounding environment and plan action paths independently. , walk upright and maintain relative balance and other functions. The perception and interaction of Xiaopeng's humanoid robot PX-5 have also been integrated with XNGP and XOS technologies in the automotive field. It realizes the reuse of core technologies in terms of underlying operating system and perception capabilities, and can complete indoor and outdoor walking and obstacle crossing for more than 2 hours. , leading the industry in perception recognition and planning capabilities.
Internet companies: Large model technology is a breakthrough for the deployment of humanoid robots. We believe that large model cognitive technology is a breakthrough for domestic Internet companies to enter the field of humanoid robots, and is also an important factor in enabling the improvement of the overall performance of humanoid robots. For example, iFlytek combines cognitive large-model embodied intelligence and motion intelligence to launch an embodied intelligent humanoid robot. Its robots can automatically disassemble tasks and perform related operations based on natural language instructions to achieve a closed loop of specific task flows. By equipping the Spark Large Model 3.0, its humanoid robot's complex task dismantling accuracy has increased by 95%, its open scene object finding success rate has increased by 85%, its reinforcement learning generalized grasping success rate has increased by 30%, and its reinforcement learning humanoid walking ability has increased by 30%. %, exercise energy consumption is reduced by 20%.
Figure 1: Comparison of parameters and marketing plans of major humanoid robots at home and abroad
Figure 2: Future application scenario planning of major humanoid robots at home and abroad
Sinolink Securities believes that the core part of the humanoid robot industry chain is the motion joint . Considering the value and competition barriers, it is recommended to focus on the ball screw and reducer links . In the field of reducers, it is recommended to pay attention to double-ring transmission and green harmonics; in the field of ball screws, it is recommended to pay attention to Hengli Hydraulics and Best. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to Hechuan Technology and Wuzhou Xinchun, which have the ability to deploy motors or lead screws and other related businesses.
Table 1: Valuation of key companies
risk warning
Although the development of the humanoid robot industry is in full swing and the future development situation is promising, it still contains risks. Specifically, it is divided into three major modules.
There are risks if the development of humanoid robots fails to meet expectations. The humanoid robot industry is still in its early stages of development, with relatively high risks. If future development is less than expected, and the demand for core components such as motors, sensors, reducers, and ball screws is less than expected, it will affect the performance of related companies.
Risk of domestic substitution failing to meet expectations. At present, some domestic enterprises in the fields of motors and reducers have entered the first echelon, but if technological research and development lags behind in the future, domestic substitution may fail to meet expectations, affecting the growth of corporate performance.
Industry competition intensifies risks. As demand changes, if competition intensifies in the robot parts market segment, there is a risk of declining corporate profitability.
In general, the development of "motor + reducer" in the humanoid robot industry chain is the preferred solution for future commercial promotion; motion joints are its core technology part; it starts from the factory and gradually enters the home; risks and opportunities coexist.
Chart source: Company official website, Company official WeChat
References: China National Securities Research Institute
"Humanoid Robot Industry Research Report" series of articles:
