Although the production capacity of CoWoS has doubled, the test time and equipment delivery time have been extended, and CoWoS is still in short supply.
According to analysis, the overall CoWoS monthly production capacity dominated by TSMC at the end of this year can double to 35,000 pieces to 36,000 pieces compared with the end of 2023, and to 50,000 pieces by the end of 2025.
Wu Tianyu, chief operating officer of ASE Investment Holdings, said that this year's CoWoS advanced packaging performance related to AI chips is expected to increase by more than $250 million compared with the original expectation, and the demand for advanced packaging for AI chips will continue to be strong in the second half of the year and 2025.
In addition, the complex design of AI chips and the stacked design of CoWoS advanced packaging require longer testing time, and it is expected that the wafer testing time of AI chips will increase by more than 5% or even 9% compared with ordinary chips, and the test time of finished products will be extended by 2 to 3 times.
ASE Investment Holdings' expansion plan will focus on meeting the packaging and testing needs of AI chips. With the rapid development of AI technology, the demand for high-performance chips is rising, especially in advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate). ASE Investment Holding expects that with the growth of demand for these technologies, the company will further increase its packaging and testing capacity to meet market demand.
Figure: AI chips drive the demand for CoWoS packaging and testing ASE and other companies expand capital expenditures
To this end, ASE has actively expanded the back-end testing capacity of advanced packaging of AI chips this year, and announced the construction of a K28 factory in Kaohsiung in late June, which is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The semiconductor test equipment market is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. According to Sullivan's forecast, the global test equipment market is expected to exceed $10 billion by 2027. As an important player in the packaging and testing industry, ASE Investment Holdings' increased capital expenditure and expansion plans will help capture market growth opportunities.
From the perspective of capital expenditure, ASE will increase its capital expenditure by more than 50% this year compared with 2023, of which more than 5% will be used for advanced packaging and testing, and the testing capital expenditure will increase by 10% compared with the original. Kyung Won's capital expenditure this year expanded to NT$12.281 billion, up 75.4% from the original plan of NT$7 billion, to meet the demand for AI and HPC chip testing.
In addition, the advanced packaging of AI chips has also driven the demand for probe card-based testing. The self-made rate of probes in Yingwei's new factory in Kaohsiung is in line with expectations, and it is estimated that the monthly production capacity will reach 3 million needles by the end of this year, with a self-made rate of more than 50%. Wangsi will expand the production capacity of probe cards by 30% this year, and start the capacity expansion plan, and Wangsilicon will continue to expand the production capacity of vertical probe cards and microelectromechanical (MEMS) in the second half of the year, of which MEMS probe cards are mainly used for HPC and automotive chip testing.
