At a time of intense changes in the global semiconductor landscape, the U.S. government has imposed stricter restrictions on China's chip exports in an attempt to curb China's development in the fields of high-performance computing and artificial intelligence. However, analysts warn that this "chip war" may backfire, not only failing to stop the rise of China's chip industry, but accelerating the process of domestic substitution, and may even "cede" the leadership of the global semiconductor market to China.
U.S. restrictions escalated, and Nvidia and AMD were hit hard
U.S. chip giants NVIDIA and AMD recently filed documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosing the potential for significant financial shocks due to export restrictions. Nvidia expects its H20 chips, tailored for the Chinese market, to lose up to $5.5 billion in revenue due to the new regulations. AMD also said that its MI308 chip, which is designed for high-performance computing and AI scenarios, has uncertain export prospects and may face losses of up to $800 million.
In fact, NVIDIA's H20 was originally a "compliant" product developed under the previous US export control framework, trying to meet the regulatory requirements while still serving the Chinese market. However, the introduction of the new export licensing regulations has once again blocked this channel. The U.S. government fears that the chips could be used in China's supercomputers to advance AI technology.
"Export control" turned into a "booster"?
A number of analysts pointed out that this repressive strategy not only failed to contain China, but instead stimulated the innovation momentum of China's local chip companies. Rob Enderle, an independent technology analyst, believes that Chinese giants like Huawei will take this opportunity to further develop domestic microprocessors and GPUs. "This is a godsend for China," he said, adding that "the United States is rapidly ceding the leadership of microprocessors and GPUs to China."
Jack Gold, chief analyst at J.Gold Associates, said that the current approach of the United States is to provide a "time window" and "policy stimulus" for China to build a chip industry chain, and once Chinese chips become globally competitive, it will be difficult for American companies to regain market share.
Figure: As the chip war escalates, the United States may give up the market to China?
U.S. allies may become "indirect victims"
In addition to the direct confrontation between China and the United States, Gold also pointed out that the U.S. approach is also invisibly alienating its allies. The global economic system cannot be controlled by heavy-handed means, and many of America's traditional partners may turn to Chinese sourcing to ensure supply chain stability after facing tariff and export control pressures. As a result, the competitiveness of American chip companies in the international market has been further weakened.
Enderle also believes that chip customers around the world will increasingly look for suppliers outside the United States to avoid geopolitical risks, which will give "non-American" companies a greater advantage in competition.
The chip war is far from over
Despite the challenges, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang remains confident in the company's ability to stay ahead of the curve while complying with U.S. regulatory requirements. "The global progress of AI will not be stopped by anyone," he said. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives also pointed out that Nvidia is a "key pawn" in this Sino-US game, and the US government has set a "no entry" sign for China in an attempt to slow down the pace of its AI development.
However, Ives also reminded that "the chip war is far from over", and the two sides will continue to make moves in the future, and the game will continue to escalate.
Summary
In the short term, U.S. export restrictions do create obstacles to the development of Chinese chip companies, but in the long run, these pressures may instead prompt Chinese companies to accelerate technological breakthroughs and supply chain independence. If Chinese companies achieve technological breakthroughs in key areas, it will be even more difficult for US companies to regain market advantage.
The price of "suppression" may be "letting go" - this is a potential risk that the United States has to face in this global chip hegemony war.
