Recently, I saw an in-depth analysis of China's new energy development by a netizen on Zhihu, and its core view can be summarized as: China's breakthrough in the field of wind power and photovoltaic is not only an environmental protection measure, but also a strategic layout of the country in the three dimensions of industrial upgrading, energy security and future scientific and technological competition, and has achieved remarkable results.
This netizen's argument is logical and the data is strong, especially pointing out that China's wind and photovoltaic power generation has exceeded the electricity demand of residents and the scale ranks among the top in the world, which is quite convincing. However, his analysis also has a certain tendency to be optimistic, and does not involve deep-seated challenges such as technological bottlenecks, industrial collaboration, and geopolitical games.
Below, the editor of China Exportsemi will analyze his main views one by one, and talk about his own views in combination with the actual situation.
1. The scale of wind and solar power surpasses that of residential electricity: achievements and limitations
Netizen's view: China's wind power and photovoltaic power generation capacity has been able to meet the needs of residents, proving the success of the new energy strategy.
Editor's point of view:
The achievements are worthy of recognition: China has the largest installed wind and solar capacity in the world, and the total wind and solar power generation in 2023 will be about 1.2 trillion kWh, which is indeed more than the residential electricity consumption (about 1.1 trillion kWh), which is a milestone in the global energy transition.
However, there are two things to keep in mind:
Power generation ≠ consumption: Wind and solar power are volatile, and the actual grid-connected electricity is limited by the power grid regulation capacity, and the phenomenon of "curtailment of wind and solar" still exists in some areas (the curtailment rate of wind and solar power in 2023 will be about 3.1%, and the curtailment rate of solar power will be about 1.8%).
Low proportion of residential electricity consumption: Residential electricity consumption accounts for only about 14% of the electricity consumption of the whole society, and industrial electricity consumption (accounting for more than 70%) is the main battlefield for new energy substitution.
Therefore, the scale expansion of wind and solar is the first step, but grid flexibility, energy storage technology, and cross-regional deployment capacity are the key to determine its actual contribution.
Figure: Observations and reflections on China's new energy strategy
2. The world's leading scale advantage: strength and shortcomings
Netizen's point of view: China's wind and photovoltaic power generation exceeds that of Russia and Japan, and the total amount of renewable energy is comparable to India, reflecting international competitiveness.
Editor's point of view:
The scale is indeed leading: China's installed wind power and photovoltaic capacity account for about 40% of the world's total, and the manufacturing end (such as photovoltaic silicon wafers and battery modules) occupies a dominant position in the world.
But there are still gaps in technology:
In the field of photovoltaics, China is leading in PERC cells (mainstream technology), but new generation technologies such as TOPCon and HJT still need to be broken through.
In the field of wind power, high-end equipment such as offshore large megawatt units and floating wind power still rely on some imported technologies.
The penetration rate is not as high as that of Europe and the United States: German wind power accounts for more than 40%, Denmark accounts for more than 50%, and China only accounts for about 15% of the total power generation, and there is still room for improvement.
Therefore, China is a "manufacturing giant" of new energy, but it needs to transform into a "technology giant" to avoid falling into the dilemma of "large scale and low profits".
Industrial upgrading: energy storage breakthroughs and the vision of "near-free electricity".
Netizen's point of view: After the breakthrough in energy storage technology, wind and photovoltaic will achieve ultra-low cost and drive industrial revolution such as electric vehicles and high-speed rail.
Editor's point of view:
1. Energy storage is the core bottleneck:
At present, the cost of mainstream lithium battery energy storage is still high (0.6-0.8 yuan/kWh), and pumped storage and compressed air energy storage have not yet been applied on a large scale;
Technologies such as sodium-ion batteries and hydrogen energy storage are still in the early stages of commercialization.
2. Grid Synergy Challenges:
China's wind and solar resources are concentrated in the northwest, while the electricity load is concentrated in the southeast, and the construction of ultra-high voltage transmission and distributed power grids still needs to be accelerated.
If energy storage and dispatching systems can't keep up, low electricity price dividends may not benefit the whole society.
Therefore, energy storage and smart grid are the "last mile" of the new energy revolution, which requires a joint breakthrough in policy, capital and technology.
3. Energy security: the possibility of weakening the hegemony of the petrodollar
Netizen's view: New energy reduces oil dependence, shakes the US dollar-oil system, and enhances China's geopolitical security.
Editor's point of view:
1. Limited short-term impact:
The transportation sector (aviation, shipping) is still highly dependent on oil, and it will take decades for new energy to be replaced;
The hegemony of the dollar depends not only on oil, but also on the SWIFT system, the treasury bond market and other integrated financial systems.
2. New Dependency Risk:
Photovoltaic silicon materials, wind power rare earths, lithium resources, etc. may form a new "bottleneck" problem (for example, China's dependence on lithium resources imports exceeds 70%);
It is necessary to strengthen the research and development of resource recovery (such as power battery recycling) and alternative technologies (such as sodium batteries).
Therefore, new energy will enhance energy independence, but "de-dollarization" needs to be accompanied by comprehensive strategies such as RMB internationalization and commodity pricing power.
4. Electricity and the Future Competition: The Energy Foundation in the AI Era
Netizen's point of view: China's power generation is the world's first, which will provide support for AI computing power and occupy the commanding heights of science and technology.
My Comments:
The scale of electricity is an advantage: China's annual power generation capacity exceeds 8 trillion kilowatt hours, accounting for 1/4 of the world's total, and indeed provides basic guarantee for data centers and computing infrastructure.
However, the energy structure needs to be optimized:
AI data centers need 24-hour stable power supply, and if they rely on fluctuating wind and solar power, they need to be equipped with nuclear power or new energy storage.
At present, China is still dominated by coal power (about 60%), and if the growth of computing power depends on fossil fuels, it may exacerbate the contradiction of carbon emissions.
Therefore, the future competition is not only "who has more electricity", but also "whose electricity is green and stable", and China needs to continue to invest in clean energy and smart grids.
5. Summary: Achievements and future challenges of China's new energy strategy
1. Accomplishment:
The world's largest scale, reducing the cost of new energy and accelerating the global energy transition;
reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enhance geopolitical resilience;
Laying the foundation for future industries such as AI and electric vehicles.
2. Challenge:
Key technologies (energy storage, smart grid) still need to be broken through;
Avoid the transfer of external dependence on resources (lithium, rare earths, etc.);
Balance scale expansion with efficiency improvement to prevent inefficient investment.
All in all, the top-level design of China's new energy strategy is successful, but the next stage needs to shift from "quantity" to "quality", focusing on overcoming technical bottlenecks, optimizing industrial synergy, and preventing resource risks. Only by realizing the trinity of "technological autonomy + grid intelligence + resource security" can we truly become the leader of the global new energy revolution.
