According to Yole's State of CMOS Image Sensors 2024 report, the CMOS image sensor (CIS) industry is going through a period of transformation and is expected to grow at a rate of 4.7% from 2023 to 2029. This growth trajectory is reflected in the expected increase in CIS shipments, which will increase from 6.8 billion units in 2023 to 8.6 billion units in 2029. The market dynamics are a mixed bag, with some segments facing declines while others are booming.
Industry-specific trends
Smartphone sales have traditionally been an important driver of CIS demand, but the recent inflationary environment has led to a slowdown in replacement rates and a long-term decline in sales. Benefiting from stringent safety regulations and the growing demand for automation, automotive cameras are becoming increasingly important for advanced driver assistance systems and autonomous driving technologies, and the automotive industry is growing brightly. CIS revenue in the security industry stagnated in 2022, but resumed growth in 2023 as the demand for enhanced security applications in various sectors increased. In the industrial sector, high-performance sensors are still required for factory automation applications, driving strong demand in the industry.
The average selling price (ASP) of CIS products exceeded $3 in 2022 and is expected to remain above this threshold, indicating a stable revenue stream. According to Yole Group's State of the CMOS Image Sensor Industry 2024 report, CIS's total revenue is expected to grow from $21.8 billion to $28.6 billion, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7%. Despite the decline in CIS wafer production in 2022, it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% over the next six years. Stacked CIS wafers, especially those with a three-layer stacked architecture, still maintain a dominant production share of 75-77%.
Figure: CMOS Image Sensor Market Share 2022-2023
Competitive landscape and market share
According to market research, the competitive landscape of the CIS market is undergoing significant changes. Thanks to the success of the LYTIA brand and the expansion of the Fab 5 plant, Sony is expected to achieve a 50% market share. In contrast, Samsung and SK hynix are shifting their focus to the memory business due to declining demand for CIS products.
The U.S.-China economic conflict initially benefited Chinese CIS vendors, who took advantage of United States sanctions against Huawei. However, these players are now targeting high-value markets such as automotive and industrial. Onsemi and SK Hynix's growth has stalled, while STMicroelectronics is diversifying with global shutter offerings. Galaxycore is facing challenges in the low-end market, while Smartsens is making a comeback in the mobile and automotive segments.
By 2024/2025, the growth of China's smartphone market is expected to benefit local CIS vendors. The automotive segment will grow steadily, with Sony and Samsung competing fiercely with Onsemi and Omnivision. Investment in emerging technologies has slowed, but new products are expected to be launched in the coming years.
The shift from imaging to sensing has become more pronounced as CIS technology expands to X-ray, ultraviolet, shortwave infrared, polarization, and multispectral imaging. These advancements not only broaden the scope of applications for CIS, but also enhance its overall value proposition in the market.
The CMOS image sensor industry is expected to continue to grow, driven by technological innovation and the expanding use of various industries. While some market segments face challenges, the overall outlook remains positive, with significant opportunities in automotive, security, industrial, and advanced imaging technologies.
