With the rapid development of technology and the continuous evolution of consumer demand, China's smartphone market is at a critical stage of a new round of transformation and growth. According to the latest forecast released by IDC, by 2025, China's smartphone market shipments will reach 289 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Although this data seems to have a limited growth rate, it reflects the steady development and strong resilience of the Chinese market in the context of increasing global economic uncertainty and gradual market saturation. China Exportsemi will try to deeply interpret the "Top Ten Insights" released by IDC, and sort out eight key trends and opportunities in China's smartphone market in 2025.
1. Market shipments are stable and improving
According to IDC, China's smartphone shipments will reach 289 million units by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. In recent years, China's smartphone market has faced growth bottlenecks due to factors such as the economic environment and the extension of the replacement cycle. However, smartphones are still the core tools of daily life, and consumers' demand for technology updates and experience upgrades has always existed. Especially in third- and fourth-tier cities and rural markets, smartphones still have a lot of room for penetration.
Although the growth rate is relatively modest, the steady growth of the overall market is a testament to the resilience of China's smartphone market. In the future, with the acceleration of technological innovation and the shortening of consumer replacement cycles, market shipments are expected to continue to maintain healthy growth.
2. Folding screen mobile phones are growing rapidly
The foldable screen mobile phone market is becoming a new engine for the growth of the smartphone industry. IDC predicts that the shipment of folding screen mobile phones will reach 10 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. This growth rate is much higher than that of the overall market, reflecting the enthusiasm and acceptance of innovative forms by consumers.
However, the folding screen market is not all smooth sailing. In the third quarter of 2024, folding screen phone shipments declined year-on-year for the first time, which shows that the market is more sensitive to price and durability. In addition, the launch of tri-fold screens and more new forms of products is expected to further expand the use scenarios and improve the user experience. In the next few years, the competition in the folding screen mobile phone market will become more intense, and manufacturers need to achieve breakthroughs in technology, design and cost control.
Figure: China's eight smartphone trends forecast for 2025
3. AI mobile phones are booming
AI phones are undoubtedly a bright spot in the market in 2025. IDC predicts that by 2025, China's new-generation AI mobile phone shipments will reach 118 million units, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, and the overall market share is expected to exceed 40%.
The rapid rise of AI mobile phones is driven by both technological progress and market demand. On the one hand, AI empowers users to experience more intelligently, such as real-time voice assistants, personalized recommendations, and image enhancement. On the other hand, manufacturers have created differentiated competitive advantages through AI functions, which has become an important means to maintain user stickiness.
The global market also has high hopes for AI phones. Canalys predicts that AI phones will account for 54% of the global smartphone market by 2028. It is foreseeable that AI mobile phones will become the "standard" of the future market, promoting the transformation and upgrading of the entire industry.
4. Data privacy and security are in focus
With the popularization of AI functions in smartphones, user data privacy and security have become a new focus. The increasing amount of data collected and analyzed by smartphones, including personal habits, geolocation, and biometric information, puts forward higher requirements for privacy protection.
The continuous improvement of laws and regulations has promoted manufacturers to strengthen the research and development of data security technologies to ensure the encrypted transmission and legal use of data. In the future, privacy protection will become an important consideration for users when choosing mobile phones, and it will also be the key for manufacturers to win the trust of the market.
5. Diversification of the software ecosystem
In the future, the competition in the smartphone market will not only be limited to hardware, but will also expand to the software ecosystem. IDC predicts that the number of smartphones that support multi-system interconnection will gradually increase, and the share of operating systems such as HarmonyOS is expected to further expand.
Huawei and other vendors are building a multi-terminal interconnection ecosystem to promote collaborative innovation of software and hardware. This trend shows that the smartphone market is changing from single-device competition to ecological competition. The improvement of the software experience will bring consumers a more convenient experience.
6. Price segment differentiation continues to intensify
The price differentiation trend in China's smartphone market is becoming more and more obvious. IDC predicts that in 2025, the high-end market share above $600 will reach 30.9%, a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points, and the low-end market share below $200 will increase to 31.5%. The mid-range market share of $200-400 will decline by 4.2 percentage points to 28.0%.
This trend reflects the dual phenomenon of consumption upgrading and consumption stratification. On the one hand, consumer demand for high-end mobile phones continues to rise; On the other hand, demand from price-sensitive users in the low-end market remains strong. Manufacturers need to optimize product lines and pricing strategies according to the needs of different consumer groups.
7. The second-hand mobile phone market is expanding rapidly
With the acceleration of the frequency of smartphone replacement, the second-hand market has ushered in explosive growth. IDC predicts that by 2025, the market size of China's second-hand smartphones (including refurbished phones) will be close to 100 million units.
The second-hand market not only provides consumers with a more cost-effective option, but also promotes the recycling of resources, which is in line with the trend of environmental protection and sustainable development. In addition, the rise of officially certified refurbished machines has improved the quality and transparency of the second-hand market, bringing users a more reliable buying experience.
8. Chinese mobile phone manufacturers are accelerating globalization
The pace of Chinese mobile phone manufacturers going overseas is accelerating. Since 2014, domestic brands have been deeply involved in overseas markets and have gradually achieved remarkable results in India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
In 2025, going overseas will become the key for Chinese mobile phone brands to achieve incremental markets. In the face of complex competition in the global market, manufacturers need to enhance brand image, technological innovation and channel construction to enhance the competitiveness of the international market.
All in all, looking forward to 2025, China's smartphone market will show a development pattern of steady growth and diversified innovation. From the rapid popularization of foldable screen mobile phones to the in-depth application of AI technology, to the optimization of data security and software ecology, these trends have jointly promoted the market towards high-quality development.
In the face of a market environment where opportunities and challenges coexist, manufacturers can only stand out in the fierce competition by continuously innovating and accurately grasping consumer needs. At the same time, as Chinese mobile phone brands accelerate their global layout, China's smartphone industry is expected to win more market share and voice on the international stage.
Resources
1. IDC: Top 10 Insights on China's Smartphone Market in 2025
2. Canalys: Global AI Mobile Phone Market Forecast Report
