On November 20, 2024, at the MTS 2025 Storage Industry Trends Symposium held at Raffles Hotel Shenzhen, Mr. Guo Zuorong, Senior Vice President of Research at TrendForce, delivered a forecast report on the foundry industry dynamics in 2025. He said that the global foundry industry is expected to achieve 20% growth in 2025, driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI). This prediction not only injects a shot in the arm for the semiconductor industry, but also provides a clear direction for industry players.
New drivers for the global semiconductor market:
In the report, Mr. Guo Zuorong pointed out that although there are still many uncertainties in the global economic situation, the rapid development of AI technology is bringing new growth momentum to the semiconductor industry. In particular, the demand for AI servers and new energy vehicles (EVs) is growing strongly, with AI servers expected to grow by 42% this year and 28% next year. This growing trend shows that AI technology is becoming a major force driving the development of the foundry industry.
TSMC's Industry Leadership:
In the wafer foundry industry, TSMC occupies a leading position in the industry with its advanced process technology and huge market share. Mr. Guo Zuorong mentioned that TSMC's leading position in advanced processes such as 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm has made it have a very high share in the global foundry industry, reaching 66% of the market share. This data not only demonstrates TSMC's technological strength, but also reflects its core position in the global semiconductor supply chain.
Capacity utilization recovery:
In analyzing the capacity utilization rate, Mr. Kwok pointed out that after the market downturn in 2023, the inventory level of the global semiconductor industry has been reduced and is expected to gradually recover to a healthy inventory level in 2025. He expects that with the entry of new demand, the capacity utilization rate in 2025 will show an upward trend, especially in the 8-inch wafer market, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach about 80% in the fourth quarter of next year.
Technology Upgrades and Packaging Innovations:
In terms of technology upgrading and packaging innovation, Mr. Guo Zuorong mentioned that with the development of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) technology, the wafer foundry industry is ushering in new challenges and opportunities. He predicts that HBM manufacturers will seek to cooperate with foundries to manufacture chips, while advanced packaging manufacturers are actively expanding 2.5D production capacity and developing new 3D stacking processes. The development of these technologies will further drive the growth of the foundry industry.
Conclusions and Prospects:
In the conclusion of the report, Mr. Guo Zuorong pointed out that the main growth driver of the wafer foundry industry in 2025 is still AI chips, but only a few companies such as Nvidia and AMD can make huge profits from it. He also mentioned that the demand for mature processes will continue to increase, including the adjustment inventory of automotive components. In addition, HBM manufacturers are also looking to cooperate with foundries to manufacture chips, and advanced packaging manufacturers are actively expanding 2.5D production capacity and developing new 3D stacking processes.
Figure: Five key analyses from TrendForce's Senior Vice President of Research, Mr. Guo Zuorong's "2025 Forecast Report on Foundry Industry Dynamics"
Editor's point of view:
According to the editors of China Exportsemi, this report by TrendForce provides profound insights into the future development of the memory industry, especially in the context of the rapid development of AI technology, and the dynamics of the wafer foundry industry will have an important impact on the global semiconductor market. Mr. Kwok's forecast is not only based on an in-depth analysis of available data, but also takes into account the impact of global economic and policy changes on the industry. The report provides industry participants with a clear direction and market insight.
With the continuous progress of AI technology and the changes in the global economic situation, the wafer foundry industry in 2025 will face new opportunities and challenges. Mr. Kwok's presentation provides us with a comprehensive perspective to anticipate and prepare for the upcoming changes in the industry.
