According to KPMG's report, for a long time, the "backbone" of China's foreign trade and exports has been dominated by the "old three" (services, home appliances and furniture), which has made an important contribution to China's economic development. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, from 2020 to 2023, clothing, home appliances and furniture have accounted for about 9% of China's total exports, a stable proportion that demonstrates the strong competitiveness of China's traditional manufacturing industry in the global market and lays a solid foundation for China's leading position in global trade.
In recent years, the proportion of the "new three" (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic products) in China's foreign trade exports has increased rapidly, becoming a new business card of Made in China. In 2023, the total export of these "new three" products will be 1.06 trillion yuan, breaking the trillion RMB mark for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%. China's new energy vehicle industry has achieved rapid development in recent years and has become an important force in the global new energy vehicle industry. According to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, the number of Chinese automobile exports in April 2024 has reached 556,000 units, of which the growth rate of new energy vehicles far exceeds that of traditional fuel vehicles. It is estimated that China's automobile exports are expected to increase by 20% in 2024, further exceeding the 6.5 million mark. In addition, some Chinese new energy vehicle brands such as BYD have made remarkable achievements in the global market, such as CATL, which has begun to lead the world in power battery shipments since 2017. At the same time, China's PV industry has made great achievements in technological innovation and cost control, which has promoted the cost reduction of the global PV industry. The competitiveness of China's photovoltaic products in the international market has been continuously improved, and the export volume has continued to grow. In the first half of 2024, the export value of photovoltaic products reached 28.92 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%.
Figure: The total export value of the "new three" from 2020 to 2023 is 100 million yuan
According to KPMG, from 2020 to 2023, the compound annual growth rate of the export scale of the "new three" is as high as 57.7%, which is far faster than the growth rate of the "old three". This significant growth not only reflects the trend of China's manufacturing industry from traditional labor-intensive to high-end, intelligent and green transformation, but also marks that the "new three" is gradually becoming a new growth pole for China's foreign trade exports, injecting new vitality into China's global trade development.
According to the data, China's "new three" export market covers more than 200 countries and regions, and is widely welcomed around the world. According to customs data, China's exports to the top five markets of the European Union, the United States, ASEAN, South Korea and the United Kingdom increased significantly, increasing by 88.7%, 88.1% and 103.5% respectively. From the perspective of export regions, China's new energy vehicle export market is diversified. From the perspective of export destinations, China's new energy vehicles are not only sold well in emerging markets such as Central and South America and Southeast Asia, but also in high-end markets such as Belgium and the United Kingdom. In the first seven months of 2024, the top five countries in China's total NEV exports are Belgium, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Thailand and the Philippines.
According to KPMG, China's manufacturing industry has shown a sustained growth trend in recent years, not only increasing in scale year by year, but also maintaining a high growth rate. By the end of 2020, the cumulative net outward direct investment in China's manufacturing industry had reached US$277.869 billion, accounting for 10.77% of China's cumulative net outward investment.
In 2023, China's manufacturing outward FDI flows reached US$27.15 billion, accounting for 16.6% of China's total outward FDI flows. Investment is mainly concentrated in high-end manufacturing sectors, such as computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and accounts for an important proportion of OFDI. At the same time, China's manufacturing foreign investment is widely distributed, especially in the countries along the "Belt and Road".
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