According to data from SNE Research, a South Korean research institution, from January to September 2024, the global installed capacity of power batteries reached 599GWh, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. Among them, Chinese companies dominate, with a total installed capacity of 388.9GWh and a market share of 64.9%. CATL ranked first with a market share of 35.2%, and BYD ranked second with 17%.
The global layout of the enterprise
According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from January to November, the top 15 domestic power battery companies in terms of loading volume were: CATL, BYD, China Innovation Airlines, Gotion Hi-Tech, EVE Lithium Energy, SVOLT Energy, Sunwoda, REPT BATTERO, Zenergy Battery Technologies, LG New Energy, Jidian New Energy, Farasis Energy, Do-Fluroride, Yinpai Battery, and Yoening New Energy.
In order to meet the growing market demand, leading enterprises have accelerated their global layout:
CATL: Partnered with Stellantis to invest EUR 4.038 billion in Spain to build a battery plant with an annual capacity of 50GWh. In addition, CATL released a new generation of battery swap solutions and promoted the construction of a battery swap ecosystem through the "Chocolate Alliance".
BYD: Cooperate with Tailing Technology to deepen the new energy two- and three-wheeler battery market, and launch major projects in the Shenzhen-Shantou Special Cooperation Zone.
Gotion Hi-Tech: announced that it will invest in the construction of new energy battery production bases in Slovakia and Morocco, with a total investment of 2.514 billion euros.
EVE: The first phase of the 60GWh gigafactory in Jingmen has been put into operation, and the Malaysian plant is expected to be put into operation in early 2024.
LG Energy Solution Co., Ltd. and General Motors are jointly developing prismatic batteries, and plans to adjust the shareholding structure of U.S. battery plants to optimize resource allocation.
Figure: Prices and changes of lithium-ion battery products in China in November 2024
Energy storage cell price trends
Price action
In 2024, the price of energy storage cells will continue to fall. As of the end of October, the average price of 280Ah lithium iron phosphate energy storage cells were about 0.30 yuan per watt-hour including tax, down nearly 29% from 0.42 yuan at the beginning of the year. According to TrendForce's research, in November 2024, the price of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells remained stable, while the price of ternary batteries decreased slightly, driven by the growth of electric vehicle sales in China.
The demand for battery cells in the energy storage market maintained the characteristics of the peak season, and the proportion of large-capacity battery cells increased due to price advantages, but due to the slowdown in order demand at the end of the year, the average price of energy storage cells continued to decline in November.
Market demand
Despite falling prices, the demand for energy storage remains strong. Due to the cost advantage of large-capacity battery cells (such as 314Ah), the proportion of shipments is growing rapidly, and it is expected to exceed 40% in 2024. However, with the slowdown in order demand at the end of the year, the price of energy storage cells showed a trend of stopping falling and stabilizing in November.
Material price impact
The price fluctuations of core materials in the lithium battery industry have a direct impact on the price of battery cells. Since 2023, the price of raw materials such as lithium carbonate has fallen sharply, resulting in the price of battery cells falling from about 0.95 yuan per watt-hour at the beginning of 2023 to 0.42 yuan at the end of June 2024. However, lithium carbonate prices have rebounded in stages recently, but the pattern of oversupply has not changed, and it is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate and bottom out in the short term.
Industry outlook
Demand grows
Central China Security expects that by 2025, the demand for lithium batteries will continue to grow, especially in the field of power and energy storage, with an expected annual growth rate of more than 30%. Haitong International pointed out that the decline in raw material costs and policy support will further promote the sales of new energy vehicles and bring sustained growth momentum to the power battery industry chain.
