The controversy over mainstream technology has always been one of the enduring topics in the photovoltaic industry. "What is the mainstream of technology? The market share is more than 50%. "It is understood that the current common battery technology is in a period of blooming, including lithium-ion battery technology, solid-state battery technology, sodium-ion battery technology, structural innovation technology, etc. Industry insiders pointed out that in the next few years, TOPCon battery technology will continue to be the mainstream of the market, and it has the potential for sustainable improvement.
What is a TOPCon battery
TOPCon cell, the full name of Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact Solar Cell, is a high-efficiency crystalline silicon solar cell technology. It was first proposed in 2013 by the Fraunhofer ISE Institute in Germany and aims to achieve higher conversion efficiency by using an ultra-thin layer of silicon oxide and a layer of doped polysilicon on the back side of the cell.
This structure can effectively reduce the recombination loss of carriers in the electrode contact area, thereby improving the overall performance of the battery. TOPCon technology allows current to be "tunneled" through a very thin insulating layer, which allows electrons to easily pass through this barrier layer, while reducing energy loss and improving photoelectric conversion efficiency. Due to its high efficiency and low-cost potential, TOPCon cells are considered to be one of the next generations of mainstream solar cell technologies, attracting the attention and research and development of many photovoltaic companies around the world. With the advancement of technology, the efficiency of TOPCon cells continues to break new records and gradually achieve commercial production.
The difference between TOPCon and other battery technologies
Compared with traditional P-type PERC cells, TOPCon cells are based on N-type silicon wafers and form an ultra-thin tunneling oxide layer and doped polycrystalline silicon layer on their surfaces to achieve higher photoelectric conversion efficiency. This structural design not only effectively reduces the carrier recombination loss, but also greatly increases the open-circuit voltage of the battery, making the theoretical efficiency upper limit of the TOPCon cell much higher than that of the traditional technology. In addition, compared with other high-efficiency cell technologies such as HJT (heterojunction), TOPCon can be mass-produced by upgrading the existing production line, reducing the cost of equipment renewal, which is of great significance for large-scale commercial applications.
Figure: How will battery technology evolve in the future?
Trends in market share growth
Looking back over the past few years, the market share of n-type cell modules has jumped from less than 25% in 2023 to more than 70% in 2024, of which TOPCon alone accounts for 60%. This data not only shows the significant advantages of TOPCon cells in terms of efficiency, but also reflects the high recognition and acceptance of TOPCon cells by the market. It is expected that by 2028, TOPCon will maintain a market share of about 55.4% despite the more competitive market, which is firmly in the dominant position.
Enterprise Competitive Landscape
In China, the world's largest PV market, leading companies such as LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar have increased their R&D investment in TOPCon technology and achieved remarkable results. For example, LONGi Green Energy will ship 15GW of TOPCon cells in 2023, accounting for about 25% of the market share, showing its leadership in this field. In addition, Junda's market share in the global N-type TOPCon cell market is about 46.5%, which further proves the strong attractiveness and broad prospects of TOPCon technology.
The development trend of battery technology in the future
TOPCon is not the end, but an important milestone on the way to more efficient and sustainable energy solutions. In the future, photovoltaic technology will pay more attention to the improvement of comprehensive performance, including but not limited to efficiency, stability, environmental adaptability and resource recycling. For example, perovskite solar cells have attracted attention due to their low-cost, high-efficiency potential; In addition, advances in flexible solar cell technology also offer new possibilities for distributed energy systems.
The overall development trend of the industry
Acceleration of technological innovation: In the future, the battery industry will usher in a new round of technology upgrading cycle, and technologies such as solid-state batteries, ultra-fast charging, dry electrodes, silicon carbon anodes, and 4680 will accelerate into the stage of commercialization or large-scale mass production.
Market demand growth: With the increasing demand for high-performance batteries in the fields of new energy vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics, the battery market will continue to expand.
Intensified international competition: The competitive landscape of the global battery market is relatively stable, but with the expansion of the market scale, more and more companies will enter the market, and international competition will be further intensified.
