In the field of chip foundry, the competition between the three giants of TSMC, Samsung Electronics and Intel has entered a new stage, especially in the 2nm and 18A process technology. TSMC has solidified its position in the high-end market with its leading position in 3nm technology. Samsung, on the other hand, is trying to increase its market share, but faces the dual challenges of yield and customer acquisition. Intel's 18A process technology is at the heart of its revival strategy, but issues with volume production and yield could affect its competitive position.
TSMC's 2nm process is progressing well and is expected to begin mass production in the fourth quarter of 2024, further cementing its technology leadership. Samsung is also actively promoting 2nm technology and seeking to make breakthroughs in AI chip manufacturing. In contrast, Intel's 18A process encountered challenges in the trial production stage, and Broadcom's test results showed that its yield was not enough to support large-scale production, which was undoubtedly a heavy blow to Intel.
Figure: Intel struggles with advanced process technology
In terms of market share, TSMC still dominates, and its 3nm production line orders have been scheduled until 2026. Samsung's market share is relatively small, while Intel's foundry business has an uncertain future. Wall Street analysts have even suggested that Intel exit the foundry market, which could have a profound impact on its long-term strategy.
Despite Intel's ambitions in the chip foundry space, its technological and market-facing challenges may limit its growth. TSMC and Samsung continue to consolidate and expand their leadership positions in the premium segment. With the advancement of technology and changes in market demand, the pattern of this three-country hegemony is still evolving, and the future is full of variables and opportunities.
Intel's 18A process technology is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2024, becoming the key to surpassing TSMC and Samsung. However, the reality is far from what it could be. Broadcom's trial production shows that insufficient yield can affect large-scale production, which is a major challenge for Intel, as yield is critical in chip foundry.
At the same time, TSMC and Samsung are actively promoting their own technologies. TSMC's 3nm production line is running at full capacity, and the 2nm process is progressing smoothly. Although Samsung has encountered challenges in 3nm technology, its investment and cooperation in 2nm technology continues to increase, such as the cooperation with AI startup Preferred Networks, which is seen as an important breakthrough in the field of foundry.
According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, Samsung's foundry market share is 13%, much lower than TSMC's 62%, and Intel's market share is more limited. How Intel can break through the dilemma is still a difficult problem to be solved. Although Intel CEO Gelsinger said that the company has started offering 18A process kits to chipmakers and has attracted several customers, the market's reaction and customer choice will determine the success or failure of its foundry dream.
In the competition for chip foundry, Intel is currently at a disadvantage. TSMC's technology leadership and market share advantage, as well as Samsung's breakthrough in AI chip manufacturing, have put tremendous pressure on Intel. Whether Intel's 18A process technology can become the key to its revival still needs to be verified by the market.
With the development of technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things, the demand for high-performance chips will continue to grow, providing huge opportunities for the chip foundry market. Intel, TSMC, and Samsung all have opportunities to expand their share in this market. In the end, the sophistication of technology, the stability of yield and market adaptability will determine who wins.
In this era full of challenges and opportunities, it still takes time to test whether Intel can find a breakthrough in the shadow of TSMC and Samsung. However, the story of the three-kingdom struggle will become an important chapter in the development of the semiconductor industry.
