Today, industries such as Industry 4.0, autonomous driving, supercomputers, VR, satellite communications, humanoid robots, and brain-computer interfaces will add up to $30 trillion, and one of the main drivers of these developments is semiconductors. Today, these industries, including Industry 4.0, autonomous driving, supercomputers, VR, satellite communications, humanoid robots, and brain-computer interfaces, will add up to $30 trillion, and one of the main drivers of these developments is semiconductors.
Semiconductor advanced packaging technology is an important part of integrated circuit manufacturing, which involves connecting chips to external circuits and providing mechanical protection, heat dissipation and other functions. With the development of artificial intelligence, high-performance computing and other technologies, higher requirements have been put forward for semiconductor packaging technology, which has promoted the development and innovation of advanced packaging technology.
At present, the global advanced packaging market is growing rapidly. According to IDC's research, the global semiconductor packaging and testing market will reach $44.5 billion in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 5.1%. It is estimated that by 2028, the global advanced packaging market is expected to reach $78.6 billion. This growth trend is driven by increased demand for applications such as AI, HPC, 5G, automotive, and the Internet of Things, which require high-performance, high-density, and high-reliability packaging technologies.
In terms of technology development, advanced packaging technology is developing in the direction of 2.5D/3D heterogeneous integration, which helps to perpetuate Moore's law and improve the performance and functionality of chips. For example, companies such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are actively developing and promoting advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS, InFO, EMIB, Foveros, and others.
In terms of the competitive landscape, the global advanced packaging market is mainly composed of outsourced packaging and testing companies (OSATs), integrated circuit manufacturers (IDMs) and wafer foundries (Foundries). OSATs account for the majority of the market, while IDM and Foundry are leading the way in high-end 3D packaging technology.
Figure: Semiconductor advanced packaging blowout will reach $78.6 billion in 2028 (Source: Yole)
At present, TSMC and other wafer factory TOP manufacturers still occupy a large share in the field of advanced packaging, semiconductor veterans believe that at least 50% of TSMC's advanced packaging orders will spill over to OSAT, and the company's capital expenditure will give priority to the development and construction of advanced processes.
As early as 2021, TSMC began to outsource part of the process of the CoWoS packaging business to OSATs such as ASE Group, Silicon Products, and Amkor, especially in terms of small-batch customized products. For some high-performance chips that need to be produced in small batches, TSMC only handles the CoW process at the wafer level, while outsourcing the oS process to OSAT, and a similar cooperation model also exists in its 3D IC packaging.
In terms of market size, according to the forecasts of JW Insights and Yole, the global advanced packaging market size is expected to rise from $37.8 billion in 2022 to $48.2 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of about 6.26%. Among them, the growth potential of 3D stacked packaging technology is high, and the market size is expected to reach $7.367 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 18%.
Overall, the semiconductor advanced packaging industry is in a stage of rapid development, and technological innovation and market demand are the main driving forces for the development of the industry. With the continuous advancement of technology and the expansion of the market, it is expected that in the next few years, advanced packaging technology will bring more changes and development opportunities to the semiconductor industry.
