On October 11, 2024, Tesla held a new product launch with the theme of "We, Robot" at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California, United States. The press conference showcased Tesla's latest driverless taxi Cybercab, driverless van Robovan and an improved version of the humanoid robot Optimus. However, Tesla's stock price fell sharply after the press conference, what are the reasons behind this? The editor of China Exportsemi will talk to you today.
First, the conference was full of highlights
1. Cybercab: At the beginning of the press conference, Tesla CEO Elon · Musk personally drove into the venue in Cybercab, a driverless taxi without a steering wheel or pedals, with a sci-fi shape and a sense of technology. Cybercab is the core product of Tesla's driverless taxi project, which is expected to cost less than US$30,000 (about 210,000 yuan) and transportation costs about US$0.2 per mile. Musk said that the model will use Tesla's latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, and plans to go into production in 2026 and start mass production in 2027.
2. Robovan: In addition to the Cybercab, Tesla has also introduced Robovan, a driverless utility vehicle that resembles a traditional van but is positioned as a large self-driving vehicle capable of accommodating 20 people with some cargo capacity. Tesla's launch of Robovan shows the breadth and depth of its application of autonomous driving technology, not only covering the car market for personal travel, but also actively expanding into the field of large commercial vehicles.
3. Tesla Bot (Optimus): In addition, Musk also shared the latest progress of the Optimus robot, Tesla's humanoid robot, which shares core technologies with Tesla's vehicles, such as the three-electric system, software system, and artificial intelligence computer. Optimus is able to handle a wide range of day-to-day tasks, and the cost of a Optimus robot that can be produced at scale in the future could be reduced to $20,000 to $30,000.
Picture: Tesla's cutting-edge product launch
2. Analysis of the reasons for the decline in stock prices
Despite the highlights of the press conference, Tesla's share price fell sharply after the press conference, falling by more than 8% at one point, and its market value evaporated by about 62.207 billion US dollars (about 439.509 billion yuan). This result has aroused widespread attention and discussion, and the main reasons for this are as follows:
1. Lack of specifics: Despite the launch showcase, Tesla didn't reveal much about the implementation of the self-driving technology, regulatory issues, or whether the company will operate its own Cybercab fleet. Jefferies analysts expressed disappointment, calling it "substanceless." RBC Capital Markets analysts also pointed out that the lack of real numbers and timelines at the conference led investors to question how Tesla could achieve its ambitious goals.
2. Mass production time uncertain: Tesla announced at the press conference that the Cybercab is expected to go into production in 2026 and start mass production in 2027. However, there has always been a clear long cycle between Tesla's product launch and production capacity landing. This uncertainty has led investors to worry about Tesla's production capacity and delivery capabilities.
3. Regulatory hurdles and safety considerations: Tesla's robotaxi design faces regulatory issues that are inconsistent with federal automotive safety standards. The United States National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) investigation into whether Tesla's FSD misled consumers and regulators has not stopped. The Cybercab's design will also face intense scrutiny from NHTSA. Investors are concerned about whether Tesla can overcome these regulatory hurdles and whether the safety of self-driving technology is guaranteed.
4. Disappointed Investor Expectations: Many investors had high expectations for Tesla's launch event, hoping to see a more affordable electric vehicle, such as the rumored Model 2, to revive its aging portfolio. However, the launch did not launch such a product, which disappointed investors' expectations.
5. Musk's history of over-promises: Musk has repeatedly predicted the arrival of driverless Tesla cars over the past decade, but these promises have yet to come true. Investors have expressed concern about Musk's history of over-promising and under-delivering, fearing that the promises made at the conference will not be fulfilled either.
6. Touching the interests of traditional auto giants: Tesla's innovation has not only shaken the automotive industry, but also touched the interests of traditional auto giants. Corresponding to the previous superficial reasons, the editor of China Overseas Semiconductor Network believes that this is the core reason. In this emerging market planned by Musk, in addition to Tesla, almost all other top players are from China, such as BYD, NIO, Xpeng and other new energy vehicle companies. These companies have made significant progress in intelligence and electrification, and have launched a number of competitive electric models. Tesla's driverless technology and related innovations are undoubtedly a complete subversion of the traditional car concept, and it has also triggered a counterattack and competition from traditional auto giants. This competition will not only have a profound impact on the competitive landscape of the automotive industry, but will also promote the development of the entire industry chain. In response to the analysis of this point, we will reopen an article to do a deeper analysis, so stay tuned! (Related : Whose Interests Has Tesla Cybercab Success Affected?）
3. Tesla's long-term potential
Despite the sharp drop in the stock price, most analysts believe that Tesla's stock price remains high overall, suggesting that many investors still believe in the company's long-term potential in the self-driving car market. Tesla's persistent pursuit of a difficult fully unmanned intervention solution in autonomous driving technology has increased the difficulty of technology implementation, but it also provides the possibility for it to occupy a favorable position in the future competition.
Tesla's director of FSD software engineering has said that they have been able to predict future performance growth for FSD models. Tesla is also exploring technical options such as remote takeovers to intervene in a timely manner when the system is not working. On the hardware side, Tesla is also preparing for the mass production of driverless taxis, including the use of two sets of computing platforms, brakes, acceleration, steer-by-wire and other actuators to meet regulatory requirements around the world.
Conclusion
Although Tesla showcased a number of new products at the event, the lack of specific details and a clear timeline, coupled with factors such as uncertain production timelines, regulatory hurdles and safety considerations, disappointed investor expectations, and Musk's history of over-promises, all contributed to the decline in the stock price. At the same time, Tesla's innovation has also touched the interests of traditional auto giants, and Chinese companies have strong competitiveness here, which may be the beneficiaries of development. However, in the long run, Tesla's persistent pursuit and innovation in autonomous driving technology still provide the possibility for it to occupy a favorable position in the future competition. For the semiconductor industry, Tesla's development will also bring new opportunities and challenges to the related industry chain. In the future competition, whoever can better grasp the market trend and technological innovation will have the potential to become the leader of the industry.
