Tesla's global sales have plunged: the chip created a chokehold. Is Musk worried about situation?
-- Semiconductor technology has fallen behind, forcing Tesla into a corner
China Exportsemi observed that Tesla's sales data in February was like a roller coaster rushing down. The core markets of China, the United States, and Europe have all declined, and even the small markets of Australia and Southeast Asia have also collapsed. The collapse in the European and American markets may have something to do with Musk's political rhetoric, but from a global perspective, technology lag behind may be the deepest reason. This is not a simple situation that the product falls out of the market, there is a life-and-death battle about chip technology and supply chain behind it. Combined with the information collected, let's talk about Tesla's situation from a technical point of view.
First, sales crash: The global market collectively slapped Tesla in the face
1. The Chinese market: a double crit of policy and technology
Sales have been cut in half, which is worse than when the epidemic was locked
According to the data of the Passenger Association, Tesla China only sold more than 30,000 vehicles in February, which was directly less than half of that in January, and plummeted by 49% year-on-year. This figure is even uglier than when Shanghai was locked down in August 2022.
Huawei asked the M9 to sell like crazy, and Tesla's computing power became a joke
Tesla's sales here hit the street, and Huawei's M9 sold 42,000 units a month, directly pressing Tesla to the ground and rubbing it. What's even more embarrassing is that the computing power of Huawei's ADS 3.0 system is only 400 TOPS, which is half lower than the 720 TOPS of Tesla's HW4.0, but people's urban autonomous driving is stable. Consumers vote with their wallets: "The computing power is high, and there is always a crash on the road!"
Data compliance makes Musk feel pain
In order to meet China's new regulations from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Tesla had to replace it with YMTC SSD hard drives, which cost $120 more per car, resulting in a 3% price increase for the new Model 3. Consumers turned around and went to buy BYD seals with a price cut of 8%, and this wave of operations was heavy losses.
Figure: Tesla's global sales plunge: the chip created a chokehold. Is Musk worried about situation?
2. The American hometown can't bear it
fell for 4 months in a row, and the local brothers stabbed the knife
According to Edmunds data, Tesla sold 42,000 vehicles in the United States in February, down 5% year-on-year. Next door, General Motors relied on the Ultium platform model to grow by 17%, and the Ford F-150 Lightning stole the pickup truck market. Musk is probably so angry that he frantically posted his love package on X.
The chip supply was cut off, and the factory directly stopped production
The long-range version of the Model Y produced at the Texas factory was stopped due to the lack of Onsemi's silicon carbide chips. Lao Ma complained on Twitter: "The speed at which the United States makes chips can't keep up with the demand for our cars!"
The self-developed chip overturned, and the defendant went to court
Tesla's HW4.0 chip allowed Intel to make the foundry, but the yield was only 65%, and the cost skyrocketed by 40% compared with the previous generation. Consumers found that the computing power of this thing was not as good as that of domestic cars, and they collectively sued for "false publicity". The California court has accepted it, and if this lawsuit is lost, Tesla will have to pay the pain.
3. The European theater of war has completely collapsed
The new EU rules govern Tesla
In 2025, the European Union will create a "battery passport", requiring car companies to prove that battery materials are not sweatshops. The Congolese cobalt ore used by Tesla could not be washed at all, and as a result, the Model Y was subject to a 12% tariff and sold for 54,000 euros, which is almost 40% more expensive than the BYD Atto 3.
Sales in various countries are miserable
Germany: 1,429 units, down 76% y/y (more than 6,000 units sold last year)
France: 2,395 units, beaten by local Renault electric vehicles
The three Nordic brothers: Sweden, Norway, and Denmark have directly halved their sales
Southern Europe is even worse: Italy is down 55 percent, Portugal is down 53 percent, and Spain is barely down 10 percent – because not a few cars have been sold
4. Australia and Southeast Asia also came to mend the knife
Australia's lithium mines were cut off
CATL signed an exclusive agreement with an Australian miner, and BYD got a low-priced lithium mine at a cost of $12,000 per ton cheaper than Tesla. As a result, Tesla's registrations in Australia plummeted by 66%, and seal owners laughed silently.
The Thai market was attacked by the Great Wall
The Great Wall Ora Lightning Cat uses locally assembled batteries + Huawei car machines to directly increase the market share of Model 3 from 21% to 9%. In this game in Southeast Asia, Tesla lost so much that there was no underwear left.
Second, technology is lagging behind: Tesla's chips are out of play
Don't look at Musk's blowing about Martian immigrants all day long, the chip technology of his own car has been thrown off two streets by Chinese car companies. Vertical integration is a death in the semiconductor industry.
1. Autonomous driving chips: self-development becomes self-harm
The process is two generations behind
Tesla HW4.0 is still using Samsung's 14nm process (an old antique in 2022), and NIO ET7 has long used TSMC's 5nm NVIDIA chip, and the computing power is 3.5 times that of Tesla.
The energy efficiency ratio is crushed by domestic production
The chips made by Horizon for the M9 have 2.3 times the computing power per watt of Tesla. It's like someone else uses a No. 5 battery to drive a car, and Tesla is still using an old-fashioned battery.
Sticking to the pure visual scheme overturned
Under the complex road conditions in China, Tesla FSD has to be manually taken over 12 times every 1,000 kilometers, and Xpeng XNGP only needs 4 times. Consumer satisfaction plummeted from 78 to 61, which is a rave of negative reviews in the restaurant industry.
2. Power semiconductors: stolen by BYD
The production capacity of silicon carbide chips was robbed
70% of ST's SiC production capacity is given to BYD, and Tesla can only pick up leftovers. BYD's self-developed module pushes the cost down to $280, while Tesla costs $170 more per car.
Technological stagnation eats the old book
Everyone else is using the third-generation trench gate SiC chip, and Tesla is still using the first-generation planar gate. This gap is like the difference between 5G phones and Big Brother.
3. Battery management chip: The truth about the difficult birth of 4680 batteries
The yield rate is so low that I want to cry
The 4680 batteries produced at the Texas plant cost $270,000 for every 1,000 units produced, because ST's chip yield was only 83%.
Temperature sensors are forced to use knockoffs
As a result of the U.S. ban, TI's genuine chips could not be bought, and the Shanghai factory switched to domestic substitution, and the temperature measurement error changed from ±0.5°C to ±1.5°C. Turning on the heater in winter may trigger battery protection, who can stand this?
3. Industry reshuffle: the chip war is life and death
The current battlefield of electric vehicles has long been not about who has more batteries, but about chip technology. Chinese car companies are collectively opened, traditional giants are crazy to form alliances, and Tesla is still fighting alone.
1. The Chinese army counterattacked in an all-round way
BYD plays with IGBT chips
Self-developed sixth-generation chips, looking for SMIC foundry, production capacity guarantee is three times higher than Tesla.
Huawei has made LiDAR the price of cabbage
Hesai Microelectronics has built a vehicle-grade production line, and the cost of lidar has been cut from $800 to $150, which is cheaper than Tesla's pure vision solution.
NIO bets on gallium nitride black technology
The efficiency of the 800V on-board charging module is 97%, and the charging speed beats Tesla's supercharge.
2. Traditional car companies huddle together for warmth
Volkswagen group chip Avengers
Pull Qualcomm + Horizon to make AR-HUD and cabin driver integrated chip, which will be mass-produced in 2025.
General Motors buys mine insurance supplies
Acquired a 12% stake in Wolfspeed and directly locked silicon carbide wafers until 2030.
Toyota and Sony have teamed up for camera chips
Specializing in in-vehicle image sensors, it should be head-on with Tesla's camera solution.
3. The geopolitical god assists China
The substitution rate of domestic chips soared to 63%
Companies such as Xinqing and Horizon have pulled the self-sufficiency rate of automotive MCU chips from 18% to 63%, and the US ban has helped a lot.
European car companies collectively de-beautify
Mercedes-Benz asked Infineon to develop RISC-V architecture chips, just to say goodbye to ARM.
Tesla was angry at both ends
The U.S. factory can't buy SMIC's 28nm chips, and the Chinese factory has banned Nvidia computing cards, and the research and development of autonomous driving is directly stuck.
Fourth, the life-saving prescription: Tesla has to learn the Chinese model
If it doesn't want to become the next Nokia, Tesla must put down its body and learn from Chinese car companies - cooperate when it should cooperate, and buy chips when it should buy chips.
1. Technical: Don't do your own research
Find TSMC to save the scene
The HW5.0 chip hurriedly uses the 3nm process, and if it doesn't work, it will join forces with AMD to engage in heterogeneous computing.
Play chip assembly
The autonomous driving chip is split into a computing unit (made by Samsung) + a sensing unit (made by SMIC) to avoid political risks.
Buy, buy, buy and make up for shortcomings
Onsemi's silicon carbide division should be grabbed, and capacity is king.
2. Supply chain: learn from China's dual circulation
The North American factory tied up Intel
Taking advantage of the subsidy in the "Chip Act", we hurriedly built a vehicle-grade chip production line.
Asia orders transferred to Malaysia
The low-end chips are handed over to SilTerra foundry, don't put all your eggs in the Chinese basket.
3. Strategic transformation: from an automaker to a chip manufacturer
Learn from Intel to split up
Separate the FSD chip team and open the license to other car companies - isn't it fragrant to lie down and collect money?
Hug TSMC's thighs
Sign a ten-year CoWoS packaging order, and the continuous supply of AI training chips is king.
Conclusion
Tesla's sales avalanche has taught all car companies a lesson: electric vehicles have long been not just four wheels plus batteries, but supercomputers with four wheels. The chip technology couldn't keep up, and he was kicked out of the game every minute. As TSMC Zhang Zhongmou said: "There is no second place in the chip war." "If Musk were to play with autism on the shelf, Tesla could really turn into a steam locomotive in a museum — it looks cool, but no one wants to drive it.
(*Source: Passenger Car Association, European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Edmunds, TechInsights Teardown Report).
