According to preliminary data from the International Data Corporation (IDC), global PC shipments reached 63.2 million units in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, which marks the beginning of a new year for the PC market. However, looking ahead to the full year of 2025, the PC industry faces many tailwinds and headwinds, the market outlook is challenging, and demand planning is becoming difficult.
Judging from the situation in the first quarter, the market showed a certain trend of early consumption. As suppliers and end-users prepare for the impact of the U.S. tariffs, which have not yet been directly impacted by the tariffs in the quarter, the entire value chain has accelerated product deliveries to avoid the impact of the first round of U.S. tariffs and to cope with possible market volatility in the future. This also kept business demand strong in the first quarter.
On the demand side, there are still some positives in the PC market. For example, Windows 10 is about to end support, prompting a large number of devices to be upgraded; At the same time, the demand for on-device AI capabilities continues to grow, which is reflected in shipments in the first quarter of 2025.
However, the uncertainty caused by the US tariff policy, as well as the resulting inflationary pressures and the risk of a global recession, will have a negative impact on demand in the PC market in subsequent quarters. The new round of tariffs announced by the United States on April 2 may directly lead to an increase in the price of the PC market, which in turn will cause businesses and consumers to postpone their IT equipment purchase plans.
Chart: Global top five traditional PC shipments, market share, and year-over-year growth in the first quarter of 2025 (Source: IDC)
At the moment, while many are still working on the specifics of the tariff policy, all parties in the market have begun to reassess the situation in the coming months. From the perspective of the supply chain, there are no major changes for the time being, but due to the high volatility of the market, it is difficult for companies to make major business decisions at this time. Companies are taking stock of their existing inventory, production capacity in different regions, opportunities to reroute transportation to lower import tariffs, and some are even revisiting their cooperation agreements with the U.S. government. For hardware products such as PCs, most price increases are ultimately passed on to consumers.
In terms of market share, the top five manufacturers in the world in terms of traditional PC shipments in the first quarter of 2025 are Lenovo, HP, Dell Technologies, Apple, and Asus. Lenovo topped the list with 15.2 million units shipped and a market share of 24.1%, up 10.8% year-on-year; HP shipped 12.8 million units, with a market share of 20.2%, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%; Dell Technologies shipped 9.6 million units, accounting for 15.1% of the market share, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; Apple shipped 5.5 million units, with a market share of 8.7%, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%; ASUS shipped 4 million units, with a market share of 6.3%, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. Other manufacturers shipped a total of 16.2 million units, with a market share of 25.6%, down from the same period last year.
In response to the tariffs, most PC manufacturers have begun to shift production from China to Southeast Asia and other regions. However, the shift of production lines did not happen overnight, and it took time to build new production facilities, train local workers, and improve the supply chain system. In the process, the impact of tariffs on the PC market will persist. Even if the production line transfer is completed, the impact of tariffs cannot be completely eliminated. Southeast Asia's PC industry supply chain self-sufficiency rate is insufficient, and many parts still need to be imported from China, which will still be affected by tariff policies, making cost control uncertain, and the impact will continue.
