The global automotive industry is moving towards the deep waters of the electrification transition, and Norway has become a leader in this process. Norway is expected to completely stop selling new fuel vehicles by 2025, becoming the first country in the world to achieve this goal. In October, China Exportsemi analyzed and commented on "Leapmotor CEO Predicts Fuel Cars May Disappear in China in Three Years". In this article, China Exportsemi will try to analyze the policy support, market dynamics, technology development and global fuel vehicle delisting timetable in combination with Norway's electrification process, and explore the opportunities of Chinese enterprises in the global energy transition.
Ⅰ Policy-driven: Norway's "radical" energy transition
The news comes from Bloomberg, which says that "Norway will be the first country to fully sell new electric vehicles". Norway's success in the implementation of electric vehicles is due to strong government policy guidance. From exemption from vehicle purchase tax and value-added tax, to free parking, free tolls, and charging subsidies, the government is fully supporting the adoption of electric vehicles. These incentives have enabled Norway's EV market share to reach historic heights in 2023 – 80% of new car sales are electric, of which 66% are fully electric.
In contrast, the UK plans to ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2030, the US California has set a target of 2035, and China has set a target of "gradual realization". Norway's radical goals are not only ahead of its time, but also serve as a reference model for other countries. In Germany, for example, its NEV subsidy policy has been continued inspired by the Norwegian model, which has helped its EV penetration rate reach 31.4% in 2022.
Pictured: Gas stations in Norway are full of charging stations
Ⅱ Market performance: the global implications of the Norwegian experience
Market data shows the far-reaching impact of Norway's transformation. According to data from the Norwegian Road Federation (OFV), by the end of 2023, the total number of electric vehicles in Norway has exceeded 600,000, and the number of public charging piles has exceeded 10,000, achieving full coverage in densely populated urban areas and along highways. In addition, Norway is also promoting electric vans and buses in the commercial vehicle sector, with the number of electric buses nearly tripling by the end of 2022 compared to 2019.
Norwegian consumers are interested in high-end brands such as Tesla, BMW, and Audi, and these brands are also actively seizing the Norwegian market. For example, the Tesla Model Y became the best-selling model in Norway in 2023, accounting for 18% of the overall market share. This demand is driving brand competition in Europe and around the world, incentivizing manufacturers to introduce more efficient and cost-effective electric models.
Ⅲ Technical support: the key role of charging infrastructure
The large-scale popularization of electric vehicles is inseparable from the rapid construction of charging networks. Norway has one of the most comprehensive charging networks in the world, with an average of one charging station for every 200 electric vehicles, compared to the global average of around 600 vehicles. The proportion of fast charging piles is more than 25%, which meets the needs of long-distance driving.
In contrast, although the number of charging piles in China has exceeded 6.5 million, the proportion of fast charging piles is low. It is widely believed that Norway's experience can provide a reference for China to optimize the layout of its charging network, especially in remote areas and along highways.
Ⅳ Global ICE Vehicle Retirement Timeline: Trends and Progress
According to the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), more than 30 countries have announced targets for banning the sale of gasoline vehicles:
1. Europe: The UK by 2030, France by 2040, and Germany are more likely to rely on market forces for a gradual transition.
2. North America: California will ban the sale of new fuel vehicles after 2035, and the federal level has not yet been unified.
3. Asia: Japan aims to fully popularize electric vehicles by 2035, and although China has not announced a clear ban date, the "New Energy Vehicle Vision 2035" proposes that pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles will become mainstream by 2035.
Ⅴ China's Opportunity: From the Industrial Chain to Technology Exports
In the wave of global energy transition, Chinese manufacturers are facing unprecedented opportunities:
1. Battery manufacturing
China has become the world's largest production base for electric vehicle batteries, with companies such as CATL and BYD accounting for more than 70% of the global market. With the promotion of the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in Europe, China's battery exports continue to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 47% in 2022 alone.
2. Intelligent vehicle-road collaboration
With the advancement of autonomous driving technology, the concept of "vehicle-road collaboration" has gradually been implemented. ZTE, Huawei and other manufacturers have begun to cooperate with overseas markets to provide software and hardware support for intelligent transportation.
3. Complete car
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of 2023, China's new energy vehicle exports reached 1.07 million units, a year-on-year increase of more than 110%. Among them, brands such as Aion and Xiaopeng have entered the European market and become important growth points.
4. Policy guidance
With the advancement of the "dual carbon" goal, local governments are actively launching green transportation plans, such as Shenzhen's electrification of buses in 2023. This experience can be replicated in Southeast Asia, Africa and other regions with huge potential for new energy markets.
Ⅵ Challenges and Futures: Pain Points and Solutions for Global Transformation
Despite Norway's laudable model, there are still a number of challenges to delisting combustion engines around the world:
1. Battery recycling and environmental protection pressure
2. Battery recycling technology is not yet fully mature, and the global battery recycling rate is less than 30%, which may bring serious environmental pollution problems.
3. Commercial vehicle transformation
4. Commercial vehicles rely heavily on diesel, and the cost of electrification is high in the short term.
5. Adaptation capacity in developing countries
In areas with weak infrastructure and limited purchasing power, the pace of transition to fuel vehicles may lag.
In response to these challenges, Chinese enterprises can cooperate with other countries to provide customized solutions and expand market influence through technological innovation and model export.
Ⅶ Conclusion: Towards the era of fuel-free vehicles
Norway's electrification transition is not only a national success story, but also a microcosm of the global energy transition. As an important part of the global new energy industry chain, China should seize the historical opportunity of delisting fuel vehicles and accelerate technology research and development and global market layout. Through policy guidance, technology export and industrial cooperation, Chinese manufacturers are expected to take more initiative in this global wave of electrification and contribute to the global development of green transportation in the future.
